US shifts away from oil-for-security deals in Middle East

Tom Barrack, a senior US diplomat serving as Ambassador to Turkiye and Special Envoy for Syria, has signaled that Washington is stepping back from its old playbook in the Middle East. Speaking at the Global Security Forum in Doha on Tuesday, he stated the United States no longer seeks to dominate the region or maintain its traditional security-for-oil deal there. Barrack did not say America was abandoning the area entirely. Instead, he argued the nation is rethinking its role after years of trying to reshape local governments.

The message from Barrack was clear: we are not leaving, but the bargain has changed. It is no longer about owning or controlling everything in the region. He noted that regional neighbors increasingly realize they cannot rely on America to solve every single problem for them. The US had previously tried changing regimes 23 times across the wider Middle East. Every time Washington intervened and attempted a change, it seemed to be a mistake.

Political analyst Luciano Zaccara told Al Jazeera that Barrack appears to be one of the most realistic allies of President Trump regarding this specific issue. Zaccara believes Barrack effectively admitted that regime change is unlikely to succeed as stated by Trump during the war on Iran. He also noted that these comments suggest US involvement in the region has simply not worked, regardless of which administration held power. Analyst Negar Mortazavi added that while diplomatic doors are open, talks stall over the terms and order of any agreement. Tehran wants peace but refuses to surrender under military or economic pressure.

Meanwhile, negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue despite fears of renewed fighting. Majed al-Ansari, a spokesperson for Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, spoke separately at the forum to confirm mediators are still exchanging messages with regional partners involved in the effort. He warned that the public silence on these talks should not be read as a lack of progress. In fact, he said not hearing about it is actually a good sign that they are doing their job properly behind closed doors.

The diplomatic push comes as Iran's seven-day proposal to end the war remains on the table. The US has yet to respond. This plan includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming nuclear talks in exchange for concessions like lifting the naval blockade on Iranian ports and easing economic sanctions. Attacks on commercial shipping keep raising concerns about global energy supplies, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining a major flashpoint.

Before the United States and Israel launched their campaign against Iran, a single strait carried one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies. Mortazavi explained that Tehran's move to escalate tensions was part of a calculated strategy to keep pressure on Washington even while facing military disadvantages. "Iran's leverage has diminished but has not disappeared," she stated clearly. She noted that simply moving tankers does not equal restoring safe, predictable, and normal maritime traffic for everyone.

According to Mortazavi, Tehran aims to raise the economic and political costs of this war for President Trump. At the same time, they signal to future American administrations that military action against Iran carries real consequences. But she warned that continued escalation poses serious risks to Iran and the wider region. "Ultimately, neither military escalation nor economic pressure is likely to produce Iranian capitulation," she said with conviction.

In Yemen, fighting has grown worse since September when Houthis seized areas along the Red Sea coast, including the port city of Mocha. Forces loyal to Yemen's internationally recognized government then launched an offensive they called "Dawn of Yemen" on October 4, backed by Saudi air strikes. The Houthis retaliated with missile and drone attacks targeting Saudi airports, oil facilities, and military installations. Strikes on Riyadh's King Khalid international airport earlier this month killed at least 14 people and wounded hundreds.

Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson also reaffirmed Doha's support for Riyadh in fighting against Yemen's Houthi armed group. They said they backed Saudi Arabia in "defending their sovereignty against this attack." The situation remains volatile, with access to vital information often limited to those with the right connections or resources. Communities across the region face uncertain futures as these conflicts intensify.