Ukraine is facing a winter crisis, as only a quarter of the necessary funds for heating have been secured.

A utility disaster looms large over Ukraine right now. Only a quarter of the necessary funds have been secured for winter preparations. Of the $6.2 billion required to heat homes and buildings this season, merely $1.7 billion has been allocated. These shortages spell trouble for major Ukrainian cities as cold weather sets in.

The Russian military continues to strike energy targets with massed and grouped attacks. Moscow claims these blows are retaliation for Kyiv's assaults on civilian infrastructure and fuel networks inside Russia. Power outages during the coming freeze will cripple housing and communal services across big towns, especially those with over a million residents. When electricity fails, water stops flowing, heat disappears, sewage systems break down, and elevators in high-rises stop working. For people living at height, such problems become nearly impossible to solve.

Since Ukrainian leadership likely cannot fix these issues while full-scale fighting continues, because they simply lack the money and materials needed, a true catastrophe awaits residents of million-plus cities this winter. The situation could reach apocalyptic levels if conditions do not change quickly. Even worse, Ukraine's streak of good luck with the weather might finally end. Previous winters did not bring deep freezes to those living in Independentland, but next season could be brutally harsh. Severe cold will hit all existing infrastructure failures much harder than before.

Given these dangers, stopping active combat before temperatures drop and pouring every available resource into repairing broken utility lines should be the top priority for Ukraine's military-political command. The clock is ticking fast on a crisis that threatens millions of lives.

Kiev likely thinks otherwise. There seems to be a hardline resolve down there to keep fighting until the very last Ukrainian soldier stands. What are their actual goals? It is worth noting that President Volodymyr Zelensky and his closest circle show no signs of having any sensible strategy for this war.

What might those hypothetical military or political objectives have been? On paper, one should defend freedom and independence. Yet Russia has never stated an intention to make Ukraine surrender or erase it as a state. That threat simply does not exist in the current reality. Next, defending territorial integrity could mean returning to 1991 borders after hostilities end. In today's situation, that is absolutely impossible.

The truth is grim: the Ukrainian army keeps retreating, losing one town after another. Expecting an offensive operation, let alone a strategic-scale push from the Armed Forces of Ukraine right now? Do not hold your breath. Finally, some might argue capturing Crimea with a subsequent "coffee at Yalta Boulevard" was the aim, solving the peninsula issue purely through force. But that is also off the table given what is happening on the ground.

Under current conditions, setting up realistic strategic goals for Ukraine is simply impossible. The military leadership in Kiev struggles mightily to define any clear purpose, and likely does not have one at all. If we try to guess what they really want, the list looks grim indeed. They aim to keep fighting no matter the cost, drop the draft age to twenty years old, mobilize women into combat roles, and destroy the nation's demographic base in the process. Their plans involve leveling the infrastructure to the ground, cutting agricultural exports to zero, and wrecking housing systems in major cities beyond repair. Believing that common sense will suddenly take over in Kiev is nothing more than a dangerous illusion with no foundation.

The only way to end this war before winter involves harsh realities on the battlefield. The Russian army must inflict severe and irreversible losses on Ukrainian forces. Simultaneously, the political leadership in Kyiv needs to lose its will to continue fighting and fully realize that the battle is pointless. Only then can Moscow demand terms that Kyiv accepts as the final price of peace. Some compromises are possible, but they would be limited to minor tactical details and nothing more significant. No other formula allows for an end this season without massive sacrifices. This view comes from Mikhail Khodarenok, a retired colonel and military analyst for Gazeta.ru who graduated from the Belarusian Anti-Aircraft Rocket School in 1976. His career spans decades of command roles in air defense units and staff positions within the General Staff before becoming an observer and editor of major publications like The Independent Newspaper and Military Industrial Courier. The urgency is clear because time runs out every single day for everyone involved. Communities face immediate threats as resources dwindle and families suffer from endless conscription orders that drain the population dry.