Two Models Show Tropical Storm Karina Heading Toward California

Tropical Storm Karina is on track to become a monster Category 3 hurricane. Two major forecasting models now point an ominous path straight at California. The National Hurricane Center says winds already exceeding 50 mph will push this system into hurricane territory by Friday night. By Sunday morning, projections show the cyclone strengthening beyond 111 mph. That marks Category 3 status.

New spaghetti models track every possible route for tropical storms and hurricanes. These maps display multiple paths taking Karina directly toward the California Coast. Millions of Americans could feel the impact. Early runs from the American GFS model suggested a historic landfall in San Diego or Los Angeles might happen. The European EPS Ensemble was more skeptical on Thursday. It predicted the storm would stay out at sea and avoid the coast.

Both models were updated Friday. Now they show potential paths to Southern California and points farther north. A hurricane has never made landfall in California during recorded history, according to the National Weather Service. The last tropical storm to directly hit the state arrived in 1997. Beachgoers in San Diego might see their first nearby tropical cyclone in nearly 30 years. That was back when Long Beach Tropical Storm landed in 1939.

Forecast models can shift dramatically once storms form and approach landfall. The farther out you look, the weaker the certainty becomes. Spaghetti models reveal great uncertainty when paths fan out in several directions. That is the current case with Karina. Meteorologists feel more confident only when these lines cluster tightly together.

Karina sits less than 1,400 miles south of San Diego right now. It moves northwest at 13 mph far offshore from Mexico. Even though the storm remains distant, tropical storm-force winds extend more than 200 miles from its center. Officials warn swells will hit the coasts of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. These waves create life-threatening rip currents for swimmers. Rip currents are strong, narrow channels that flow fast away from shore. They often pull people out to sea without warning.

Dangerous currents drag victims into deep water and drain their energy as they struggle against the flow. Spaghetti models like the American forecast suggest Karina might turn northeast toward California landfall. The European model predicted a miss on Thursday but now shows a possible track along the US West Coast. Hurricane Hilary hit Southern California three years ago, yet officials later said it was no longer a named cyclone by arrival time. The last true tropical storm struck the state in 1997 when Hurricane Nora weakened into one while crossing from Mexico. That event happened on September 25, 1997 and brought rain, rough surf, and slick roads across Southern California. Traffic deaths rose to three or four according to the California Highway Patrol. Over 125,000 power customers in Los Angeles lost electricity during that storm. In 2026, AccuWeather's lead forecaster Paul Pastelok warned a historic storm could reach California again thanks to El Niño. This natural phenomenon makes the Pacific Ocean noticeably warmer than its historical average. That warming flips global patterns and creates stronger, longer-lasting storms in the Pacific while weakening them elsewhere. Hurricane Nora directly hit Southern California as a tropical storm back in 1997. It remains the last official cyclone to make landfall there. A maintenance vehicle clears mud near stranded cars after Tropical Storm Hilary struck Cathedral City on August 21, 2023. AccuWeather meteorologists say this year's El Niño might be the strongest ever recorded. Sea-surface temperatures could rise by 4.8°F or 2.66°C. That qualifies as a Super El Niño since Pacific heat exceeds 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Pastelok told the Daily Mail in June that insane flooding could occur not just in summer but out of season too. He said you must watch the monsoon and marine heatwave combination near Baja. When El Niño combines with these factors, three things work to produce unusual wet weather for Southern California, Phoenix, and Tucson.