Trump's 'Economic D-Day' Threat Against Iran May Backfire on US

Donald Trump has warned that any nation offering financial support to Iran faces severe punishment. He calls this move an "economic D-Day" against Tehran. The threat comes six months into a costly conflict between the United States and Iran. This is just another example of Trump trying to use American economic power to push his foreign policy goals, following a string of damaging trade wars early in his second term.

Analysts say China and Russia could make these plans very hard to execute. Iran holds deep trade ties with Beijing and Moscow that the US might struggle to break. The leverage Washington has over these two major partners is actually quite limited, experts claim. Russia already lives under sweeping American sanctions and runs most of its economy outside the US-led financial system.

China has repeatedly proven it will ignore American sanctions if doing so serves its own economic interests. Paul Musgrave, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that "it is going to be very difficult" for Trump to pull off his pressure campaign effectively. Musgrave explained the difficulty by noting that "Trump is trying to unilaterally assert the kind of coordinated sanctions that traditionally has taken multilateral coordination." This means getting on board China, Russia, and the P5 of the UN Security Council.

In a post on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday, the US president said his campaign against Iran would be "the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country". He added there would be "tremendous economic consequences" for countries that help Iran subvert US sanctions. Trump cited methods such as oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries and front companies. He wrote, "It all needs to stop NOW."

Earlier the same day, the United Arab Emirates announced an indefinite trade embargo on Tehran after accusing Iran's military of launching two ballistic missiles at its territory. Nader Habibi, a Middle East economics professor at Brandeis University, said he believed the US "strongly encouraged or induced" the UAE to impose the trade embargo. He also noted that the US may seek to pressure other Iranian trade partners, including its biggest one, China.

Any US plan to disrupt China-Iran trade is likely to face significant hurdles. While China bought 80 percent of Iran's shipped oil in 2025 according to data from analytics firm Kpler, going after China's oil refineries remains challenging. Most are independent with little reliance on the US financial system. Sanctioning the major Chinese banks if they process Iranian funds would sting, but it could also push China to hit back during a sensitive diplomatic period.

Yu Jie, a senior research fellow at the Chatham House think tank's China, Asia Pacific Programme, said Trump's threat to target Iran's economic allies "won't alter China's involvement and the existing trading relationship with Iran". Yu told Al Jazeera that "Trump intends to stabilise the ties with China so as Beijing aims to have temporary truce with Washington." Musgrave noted any aggressive secondary sanctions would be hugely significant. However, Trump likely would not want to jeopardise the US-China economic relationship given that the two countries are in kind of an economic Cold War at the moment.

China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian has responded by saying more sanctions would "not help to solve the issue". He stated that China calls on relevant parties to take responsible measures and solve the issues through diplomatic and political means. The US has tried to keep tensions with China at bay ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping's planned visit to Washington next month. During those meetings, prolonged conflict in the Gulf is one of the items both sides will discuss but it won't be the most important item.

Russia presents a different challenge for Washington. While Russia is a smaller trade partner for Iran than China, Moscow and Tehran have spent years building key commercial and military ties that circumvent the West. In January 2025, the two heavily sanctioned states signed a 20-year partnership treaty helping boost their trade volume to $4.8bn in the first 11 months of 2025 according to Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev. On top of sanctioned oil, Russia and Iran have also reportedly exchanged weapons and military equipment via the Caspian Sea.

On Monday NBC News cited a European government document as saying that Russia had sent drone components ammunition and TNT to Iran by sea. The US has already imposed sweeping economic sanctions against Russia. Iran's foreign minister on Wednesday slammed Trump's economic campaign against the country, saying it was a continuation of Washington's failed policies and will lead to further defeat. Abbas Araghchi wrote in a post on X that "US economic terrorism threatens global economy and sovereignty worldwide".

As a member of the BRICS organisation that also includes Russia China India Brazil and other global powers Iran has sought to use its weight there to seek new financial avenues. Last week Iran's Central Bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati said Iran planned to join the BRICS New Development Bank which would open more doors to financing outside Western markets. He also said Iran believes BRICS states can transact in their own currencies and that Tehran is eyeing bilateral and trilateral monetary cooperation with fellow BRICS members. The NBD has yet to comment on Iran's potential membership which would require an accession process.

Ali Akbar Dareini, an analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies in Tehran, said Iran would find a way to press on despite the suffocating US sanctions. He told Al Jazeera that Trump is stuck in a war he can't win and he can't get out of.