Trump Hopes for US-Iran Deal Amid Rising Oil Prices

President Donald Trump says the United States is hopefully toward the end of its war with Iran. He claims direct talks have begun in Tehran while global energy prices stay high. Fighting has erupted in Yemen. The US president told reporters on Wednesday that they want to make a deal. We will see how that works out, he said.

Washington is open to new discussions, Trump added Monday. Iran wants a deal quickly and badly, according to him. He noted Tehran would decide if talks proceed based on their terms. But no confirmation has arrived from Iran yet. A senior Iranian official publicly rejected talks just yesterday unless specific conditions were met. Tehran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. They demand the US honor the June agreement terms.

Oil prices crossed $100 per barrel last week and keep rising. The Iran-linked Houthis damaged Saudi oil installations amid renewed fighting in Yemen. This puts increasing pressure on global energy supplies. A fifth of global oil and gas passes through that strait. The conflict expansion into Yemen adds to the misery for nations relying on these routes.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, accused Trump of sending mixed signals. He stated no talks will happen until Iran's conditions are met. Former Iranian diplomat Abbas Khameyar dismissed the claims of direct contact. I do not think there has been any additional effort beyond what was already under way in recent weeks, he told Al Jazeera.

Negotiations have repeatedly depended on intermediaries like Qatar, Pakistan and Oman. This is not the first time Trump has claimed direct communication with Iran. There is a US narrative built on tweets and statements by President Trump claiming Iranians are calling and pleading for a meeting. The reality remains unclear as both sides walk a tightrope over this dangerous situation.

Nobody buys this narrative, and reality has taken a sharp turn away from those expectations. Iran's diplomatic push remains locked inside the existing framework established over recent weeks. The focus stays on enforcing the current Memorandum of Understanding instead of launching brand new negotiations.

What exactly is happening now between Washington and Tehran? On Thursday, Iran's semiofficial Tasnim news agency reported that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke by phone with Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir. Munir has been steering these high-stakes mediation efforts between the two capitals. The conversation took place while Araghchi was still in Beijing. They discussed regional developments and issues of mutual interest during this call, according to Tasnim.

The day before that, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged both Washington and Tehran to show restraint. He specifically called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz at an early date following his meeting with Araghchi in Beijing. Afterward, Araghchi released a statement saying Tehran seeks calm restored to the region and friendly peaceful relations with neighbors. In this regard, we have begun dialogue with countries across the region, he added.

Araghchi posted on X describing consultations with Chinese officials as successful. He noted that Tehran values the strategic partnership built with Beijing. Today's decisions will decide the future strategic balance in the region with immeasurable knock-on effects, Araghchi said on Thursday. China has avoided direct involvement in the war so far. However, President Xi Jinping offered Beijing's willingness to play a role in peace efforts at the BRICS summit in New Delhi over the weekend. He called on BRICS nations to advance peace in the Middle East.

Huiyao Wang, president of the Center For China and Globalization think tank in Beijing, says China's role in international affairs is growing during this current geopolitical turmoil. China has an enormous role to exercise if needed. So the mere fact that the two fighting parties have no end in sight shows the need for a big guarantor to come in, Wang told Al Jazeera. He believes the US wants to end this war and they also need China's help. Meanwhile, Axios is reporting Trump is expected to meet Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly next week. They plan to discuss the conflict which has hugely affected oil exports from Middle Eastern countries.

Diplomatic efforts have repeatedly stalled since a Pakistan-brokered MoU signed by Washington and Tehran collapsed last month. Both sides accused each other of violating their commitments during that failure. The agreement was supposed to kick-start a 60-day period for peace talks between the warring sides. It included provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz which has become a major flashpoint in the war. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said earlier this month that Tehran would return to the agreement if Washington did the same.

What do we know about the Houthi meeting with US officials? US officials met representatives of Yemen's Houthi movement at the US embassy in Muscat over the weekend. Five sources told Reuters news agency about these talks taking place behind closed doors.

Oman helped organize the meeting to bring parties together. Two sources say Houthis told US officials they do not plan to attack American vessels. They also remain committed to their 2025 ceasefire with Washington. One source added a pledge not to target Israeli or other commercial ships, except for Saudi vessels. The conflict had largely subsided in recent years after a 2022 ceasefire between the Saudi-backed government and the Iran-aligned Houthis. That peace ended when fighting reignited in July. In recent weeks, the Houthis seized Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline to cement their grip on the key Bab al-Mandeb strait. This route connects Asia with Europe and serves as a vital maritime path. They declared a blockade on Saudi shipping during this time. The strategic waterway links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. It has become an alternative shipping route now that the US war against Iran choked the Strait of Hormuz.