Trump Gains Young and Hispanic Support While Approval Fades

President Trump secured his return to power with help from three groups that once leaned Democratic. Hispanic voters gave him 41% support, a six-point jump from 2020. Young Americans backed him at 46%, which is an increase of ten points. Black voters approved of the president at 15%, up seven points as well.

Democrats have not yet found a way to win these people back. Yet Trump's fading approval rating does some work for them automatically. A recent Marquette survey shows two-thirds of young Americans disapprove of him. Fifty-six percent say they will vote for a Democrat in their district. Hispanics are similarly unhappy with the president. Seventy-one percent disapproved of his performance, and 56% plan to support a Democratic candidate this November.

Black voters have not fully returned home yet. One in five Black Americans approves of Trump now. However, only 69% say they will vote for a Democrat in their district. That number sits 21 points below Biden's share of the Black vote in 2020. He thanked those voters for delivering his victory then.

Democratic candidates in three battleground states face trouble with Black voter erosion, but they have found ways to stop the losses. In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff trails Biden's 2020 support among Black voters by ten points. North Carolina shows a seven-point gap. In Texas, State Rep. James Talarico runs about even with Black voters over that same period.

Michigan tells a different story entirely. A new Fox News poll indicates 75% of Black voters back newly minted Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed. That is down eighteen points from their support for Biden.

El-Sayed's far-left platform likely contributes to Black voters' skepticism. The Marquette survey shows just 36% of Black Americans hold a favorable view of the Democratic Socialists of America. Keep in mind that because Black voters are a small group, these results carry large margins of error. You can see this dynamic on maps from three recent Democratic primaries. El-Sayed did poorly in Black-majority areas like Detroit. Wisconsin democratic socialist Francesca Hong underperformed in Milwaukee, another city with a high Black population.

Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a card-carrying member of the DSA, also struggled with Black voters in New York City last year. This might explain why he has been on a "Black media blitz" to defend some of his most controversial ideas. It might be working now. Mamdani's favorability among New Yorkers sat at 69% in a Siena poll released last week.

The clock is ticking for the far-left regardless. Michigan starts absentee voting on September 24. The state's Senate race has moved to toss-up status in this edition of the Fox News Power Rankings, along with another big-name state. Three gubernatorial races also just got more competitive.

The latest Senate forecast includes six states where neither party holds an edge. That could make for an extraordinary election night. In one scenario, Democrats flip the Senate and end up with 53 seats. In another, Republicans hold on to the Senate with no net loss of seats. The GOP has a better chance at flipping Michigan than it did a week ago. In last week's Fox survey, former Rep. Mike Rogers had the support of 51% of voters compared to El-Sayed's 47%, within the margin of error.

Republicans are united in their support for Rogers, a strong and seasoned campaigner. With a quarter of Black voters not backing El-Sayed, his coalition isn't complete. The fundamentals still favor the Democrats, but in what is certain to be a high-turnout election, El-Sayed will need every Democrat to show up.

The Senate race in Texas has turned into a true toss-up. National conditions remain unchanged as Donald Trump's approval rating stalls in the 30s. His numbers drop even lower when people ask about the economy or Iran. Gas prices hurt his standing the most, with only 21% of Americans approving of him on that specific issue. This shift helps Talarico, the Democrat running for Senate in Texas. He has seen strong polling results this summer. Recent surveys show him averaging 48%, and Fox's latest survey puts him at 51%. His opponent, Ken Paxton, sits at an average of 46%.

Paxton carries a history of legal and personal troubles that likely influences those numbers. Talarico must defend past comments labeled as "woke," yet voters seem less concerned about them now. These issues could decide the election in a year already friendly to Democrats. Texas is officially a toss-up state now. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer caused some stir last week by suggesting Democrats should expand their map to include Kansas and Mississippi, where Trump leads significantly. He made this comment shortly after El-Sayed's victory in Michigan. Some party leaders balked at that win, so Schumer might just be offering donors new options.

Kansas would not be impossible for Democrats on an outstanding night. Megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton is a well-funded challenger facing incumbent Roger Marshall. That race has moved to Likely R status. The governor races in Texas, Alaska, and Minnesota are all in play based on polls alone. In Texas, the gubernatorial contest looks remarkably similar to the Senate fight. Recent polls show Governor Greg Abbott with 49% support while Gina Hinojosa holds 46%.

The story goes deeper than those percentages suggest. When Republican voters turn out in Texas, they easily outnumber Democrats. Paxton does not seem to help this ticket, but Abbott's fundraising strength and experience in tight races should keep the candidates separated when votes are tallied. Even with Republicans holding a lead, this race is clearly competitive. It shifts from Solid R to Likely R.

Alaska voters head to polls tonight for their top-four primaries. This will narrow the field but won't reveal much more right away. The gubernatorial election features 17 candidates, none of whom are incumbents. One might seem like an incumbent: Tom Begich is a former Democratic legislator with three relatives who have served in Congress or the Senate. Predicting this race is difficult, but between Mary Peltola's push for a Senate seat and Begich on the ballot, it will be competitive. The outlook moves from Likely R to Lean R.

The Republican establishment had a good week in Minnesota. Popular former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya won the party's nomination for Senate. State House Speaker Lisa Demuth became the gubernatorial nominee. She faces Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar this November, a formidable opponent who has criticized how the state handles fraud involving government programs. This issue gives Republicans a rare opening in this blue-leaning state. With this slate of candidates, the party is likely to invest here. Minnesota's gubernatorial race moves from Solid D to Likely D.