Texas Senate Race: Talarico Edges Paxton as GOP Enthusiasm Gap Widens

Weeks before Election Day, new polling data shows Democrat James Talarico holding a razor-thin lead over Republican Ken Paxton for the Texas U.S. Senate seat. This race is shaping up to be a photo finish among likely voters in the Lone Star State. The analysis arrived Thursday and reflects opinions of those ready to cast ballots.

Talarico holds a net positive personal rating of eight points, with 52% viewing him favorably against 44% who do not. Conversely, Paxton trails by 18 points, sitting at 40% favorable versus 58% unfavorable. The partisan divide is stark here too. Republicans are six times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably than Democrats are Talarico. That figure jumps from 32% for the former to just 5% for the latter.

The Republican Party also faces an enthusiasm gap within its own ranks. More MAGA Republicans say they are extremely interested in these midterms compared to non-MAGA members. Sixty-four percent of MAGA voters feel this way versus 50% of others. Confidence in showing up follows a similar pattern, with 76% of MAGA supporters certain they will vote against 65% of the rest. Democrats show higher engagement across the board. Two-thirds of DSA and non-DSA members are extremely interested, while nearly three-quarters of both groups are sure to vote.

Overall likely voters in Texas remain split on who should control the Senate. Forty-nine percent want a Democratic upper chamber while 50% prefer Republicans running it. Eight percent of self-described Republicans favor Democrats holding power. Only 1% of Democrats cross over to support GOP candidates. These numbers give Talarico a slim two-point edge, with results landing inside the margin of sampling error for this first Fox News Poll among likely voters in Texas.

Looking at the larger sample of registered voters changes the picture slightly. Talarico's advantage widens to seven points here, just outside the standard margin of error. This represents growth from a three-point lead he held back in July. Ambivalence within the GOP further shapes these Senate preferences. Non-MAGA Republicans are more than five times more likely to back Talarico than their MAGA counterparts. That ratio stands at 22% for non-MAGA supporters versus just 4% for MAGA voters. This crossover echoes divisions seen during the competitive Republican primary and runoff last year. Twenty percent of likely voters who supported incumbent Senator John Cornyn in March now back Talarico.

Support for Talarico is nearly universal among Democrats regardless of group affiliation. Fully 100% of DSA members and 98% of non-DSA Democrats support him. His backers are also slightly more certain of their choice, with 89% confident compared to 85% of Paxton supporters. Talarico enjoys strong backing from Black voters at 79%, moderates at 65%, Hispanic voters at 64%, and those under age 35 at 62%.

Paxton finds his strongest support among specific demographics. White evangelical Christians back him at 74%, followed by white men without a college degree at 65%. Rural voters stand at 57% while those ages 65 and over reach 55%. Both candidates face ideological concerns from the electorate. Roughly equal numbers worry Talarico is too liberal on issues versus fearing Paxton is too close to President Trump. These concern levels sit at 53% and 51% respectively.

President Donald Trump won Texas by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, yet his current job rating sits underwater by 11 points today. Forty-four percent approve while 55% disapprove. Fifteen percent of those disapproving still support Paxton compared to only 9% of Trump approvers backing Talarico. Economic hardships continue to dominate the voting narrative for Texans. Seven in 10 say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote. This creates another problem for Republicans because twice as many voters feel they are falling behind financially at 35% versus getting ahead at 16%. Those falling behind back Talarico by 32 points while those getting ahead favor Paxton by 48 points. The largest group, holding steady at 48%, narrowly backs Paxton by three points.

Voters weigh other issues heavily as well. Nearly half say Trump and immigration will be extremely important to their vote, with figures of 48% and 47%. One-third cite artificial intelligence technology at the same level, standing at 34%. Talarico holds wide leads among those saying cost of living, artificial intelligence, and Trump issues are critical. He leads by 19 points on cost of living, 18 points on AI, and six points on Trump. Immigration-focused voters back Paxton instead, with a twenty-point lead.

In the governor's race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds positive job ratings that give him an edge over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa.

Three-time incumbent Greg Abbott holds a 52%-47% lead over Texas state House representative Hinojosa in the governor's race. More than half of Texans, exactly 52%, approve of his current performance as leader. That same majority backs him for re-election. Conversely, 47% disapprove of his job and support challenger Victoria Hinojosa instead. Abbott edges out former Governor Bill Paxton because he draws slightly stronger numbers from men, Republicans, and moderates. Women remain more evenly split in this contest.

A modest crossover effect also shapes the results. Ten percent of voters who support candidate Talarico actually back Abbott for governor. Just three percent of Paxton supporters choose Hinojosa. Fox News pollster Daron Shaw offered a sharp observation about the dynamics at play. "Democrats in Texas will walk across broken glass to vote against Trump," he said regarding the partisan divide. The real question remains whether average Republicans show up when Trump is absent and the Senate race features a controversial GOP candidate.

Shaw noted an irony that could define the outcome. Paxton may owe his political life to Abbott, who is doing most of the get-out-the-vote work for the party. This poll ran between September 24 and September 28, 2026. Beacon Research managed it alongside Shaw & Company Research under joint direction. The team interviewed a sample of 1,203 Texas registered voters randomly selected from the statewide file. Live interviewers reached 127 people on landlines. They contacted 789 others via cellphone. A further 287 respondents finished the survey online after receiving a text message.

Results based on this full registered voter sample carry a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. For the subsample of 881 likely voters, that error rises to plus or minus 3 percentage points. Sampling errors are naturally higher for results among subgroups. Question wording and order can also influence these findings. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights generally apply to age, race, education, and area variables. This ensures respondent demographics match the registered voter population. Likely voters rely on a probabilistic statistical model using past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity, and marital status. Results among subgroups appear only when the sample size reaches at least 100 respondents.