Syrians Identify Israel as Primary Threat, Poll Shows

Syrians overwhelmingly point to Israel as the primary existential danger facing their nation and the broader Middle East, leaving Iran a distant second in terms of perceived threat. The finding comes from the Arab Opinion Index for Syria 2026, a nationwide poll released Monday by the Doha-based Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies and the Arab Center for Contemporary Syria Studies. The numbers are stark.

Ninety-seven percent of respondents stated that Israel threatens security and stability across the region. That is a massive jump from 78 percent just a year earlier. Iran’s profile has climbed too, with 93 percent now saying it poses a threat, up from 74 percent in 2025. When asked to identify the single greatest danger to Syria specifically, 61 percent named Israel. Iran drew 20 percent, Turkiye 6 percent, and the United States 5 percent.

The context is tense. Since Bashar al-Assad’s fall in December 2024, Israeli forces have seized territory in southern Syria. The survey suggests this has hardened public opinion. About 96 percent of respondents believe Israel is actively working to destabilize Syria, while 86 percent say it is driving separatist tendencies. Opposition to recognizing Israel has grown, with almost 80 percent against it, up from 74 percent in 2025. Similarly, 74 percent reject any agreement that does not result in the return of the occupied Golan Heights.

Direct diplomacy remains a flashpoint. Opinions are split on whether talks between Syrian and Israeli officials serve Damascus’s interests: 41 percent said yes, 49 percent said no. The street-level sentiment in Damascus reflects this suspicion. Al Jazeera spoke to residents ahead of last month’s Israeli elections. Jihad el-Hamwi dismissed the idea that a change in leadership in Jerusalem would alter the status quo.

“In my opinion, Israeli policy does not change when the ruler changes, because it is an expansionist policy,” el-Hamwi told Al Jazeera. “Just as it has expanded into Syria, Palestine, Lebanon and other countries, its aim is expansion, not a change of ruler.”

Another resident was equally blunt. “The Israeli elections only ever bring in a ruler who is unjust, who does not even recognise the rights of his neighbours, and who has absolutely no connection to international norms,” he said.

The survey also probes the recent US-Israel war on Iran. 80 percent of respondents justified Iranian missile strikes on Israel. However, 74 percent did not justify strikes on other Arab countries, with the exception of US military bases. Three-quarters of those polled believe Washington waged the war on Israel’s behalf.

Domestically, the data reveals a shift toward pluralism. 76 percent agreed that democracy is better than other systems, despite its flaws, a 16-point increase from last year. Three-quarters favored a democratic system with political pluralism and separation of powers as the best path for Syria. No alternative model, including rule by Islamic law without elections, garnered more than 9 percent support.

There is also a notable rise in tolerance for dissent. About 87 percent said no one should question the patriotism of people who oppose government policy, a 20-point increase. Views on the country’s trajectory remain mixed. Half believe Syria is heading in the right direction, citing the end of the former regime, the release of detainees, and the lifting of sanctions. But 35 percent disagree.

This snapshot arrives nearly two years after opposition fighters toppled al-Assad, ending more than five decades of his family’s rule. The results paint a picture of a population that is cautiously optimistic about internal reforms but deeply wary of external aggression.