Supercomputer predicts Spain to win World Cup in simulations.

The FIFA World Cup is currently in progress as global teams compete until the final match on July 19. Scientists at the University of Liverpool have now utilized a supercomputer to forecast which nations are most likely to secure the trophy. This advanced system executed 1,000 simulations to calculate the winning probability for every participating country.

The results indicate that Spain holds the highest likelihood of victory at 26.1 percent. England follows in second place with a 17 percent chance, trailed by France at 13.5 percent, Argentina at 12.4 percent, and Portugal at 10.6 percent. Dr. Benjamin Holmes noted that while the model aligns with bookmakers on Spain as the favorite, Norway stands out as a dark horse with a 3.6 percent chance of winning.

Beyond tournament outcomes, the supercomputer also identified potential recipients of the Golden Boot. It suggests that Erling Haaland from Norway or Mikel Oyarzabal from Spain are most likely to claim the award, both predicted to score 5.2 goals. The system employs machine learning to assess individual player quality and their interactions on the pitch.

Dr. Holmes explained that since Euro 2024, the team expanded the model to include injuries, suspensions, and playing conditions like weather and altitude. This approach previously correctly predicted England's second-place finish in the last European Championship. The bot further forecasts that England will win their group before facing DR Congo, then Mexico, with Brazil and Portugal awaiting them in later rounds.

Scotland is predicted to finish third in their group with an 11.8 percent chance of reaching the last 16. For the Golden Boot, Erling Haaland is the favorite with a 19 percent probability, while Harry Kane ranks third with 12.2 percent and Jude Bellingham sits at 19th place.

These findings largely match earlier calculations from the University of Innsbruck, which also estimated chances for all 48 teams. Their data showed Spain as the favorite at 14.5 percent, followed closely by England, France, and Germany. Co-lead author Achim Zeileis remarked that this year's title race appears tighter than in previous tournaments.

Andreas Groll from TU Dortmund University added that the probability of the top favorite winning is usually no more than 20 percent. As a statistician, he emphasized interest in whether the predicted teams actually advance rather than just focusing on the single favorite. Jordan remains the least likely to win according to these researchers, while Scotland faces a mere 0.2 percent chance of victory.