Super El Niño intensifies with record-breaking Pacific heat trends ahead.

Scientists have issued an urgent update on the Super El Niño. They say this terrifying climate pattern is evolving now. New measurements confirm that conditions are strengthening across the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures show a steady upward trend. From April to June, data from Columbia University showed waters around 0.98°C above average. By June, that number jumped to 1.55°C. On July 15, it climbed even higher, reaching 2.1°C above average. Researchers explained these observations clearly. Together they indicate El Niño conditions continue to intensify. The event is evolving toward a very strong state.

Experts warn the worst is yet to come. Their analysis predicts further strengthening throughout 2026. Models suggest the pattern could persist into early 2027. Scientists looked at both oceanic and atmospheric indicators recently. Oceanic signs include sea surface temperatures, which are rising fast. Atmospheric indicators focus on the Southern Oscillation Index. This measures pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. The SOI was negative 24.9 in June before dropping lower still. By July 18, it hit negative 30.0. These persistently negative values reflect a weakening Walker circulation. That is consistent with continued development and intensification of the event.

Looking ahead, models show a clear picture for March. The probability of El Niño persisting through until then stands at 100 per cent. There is also a 94 per cent chance it remains in place until May. So what does this mean for us? The World Meteorological Organisation says we can expect above-normal temperatures nearly everywhere this summer. Strongest heat signals are forecast across southern and western North America. Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, North Africa, and much of Asia face high risks too. Northern parts of Asia may also see warmer than usual weather, though forecasts there are less certain.

Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected across many areas in the Southern Hemisphere as well. Northern South America likely to see the strongest warming effects. Southern Africa is forecast to experience widespread above-normal temperatures. In Australia, warmer conditions mainly expected along western, southern, and eastern coasts. No clear trend predicted for the north of the continent. Tropical regions around the world are also forecast to be hotter than normal. Equatorial Africa and parts of Southeast Asia face specific threats here. The Maritime Continent will likely feel the heat too.

However, looking ahead, the Met Office predicts something different for Brits. They warn El Niño could cause a cold and wet winter. Impacts in the UK are typically indirect but significant later in the year. It can increase the likelihood of more unsettled conditions during autumn and early winter. That includes a higher chance of milder weather too. Rainfall will likely be wetter with stronger winds blowing through. El Niño can also be associated with colder periods late in the winter season. Calmer air masses may settle over the country then.