Super El Niño brings relief but flood risks to southern US

A Super El Niño is poised to push much of the southern United States into a stormier, cooler winter season. Government forecasters believe this increased activity could bring vital moisture to drought-stricken regions in the Southwest and Southern Plains. Meanwhile, NOAA's latest seasonal outlook predicts above-average warmth for the rest of the nation.

Meteorological winter kicks off in December and runs through February. NOAA Director Ken Graham issued a direct warning to communities across the southern U.S. urging them to prepare for heavy rains and snow. "While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides," Graham stated in an official news release.

This forecast arrives just a week after NOAA raised the probability that this cycle will be the strongest El Niño event since records began in 1950 from 75% to 83%. The phenomenon is one of three phases within the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. It describes natural shifts in ocean temperatures in the central Pacific that ripple through atmospheric circulation and alter global weather patterns.

Specifically, El Niño involves water warmer than average across the equatorial Pacific, whereas La Niña brings colder conditions, and ENSO neutral represents near-average temperatures. These warm waters shift the jet stream, changing where storms travel, how rain falls, and what the thermometer reads across America. In September, water temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific averaged more than two degrees Celsius above normal, a threshold that marks Super El Niño territory. To officially qualify as such an event, these elevated temperatures must persist for three consecutive months.

During this heightened phase, the Pacific jet stream tends to stretch out and become more active. Think of it like a conveyor belt dragging storms far across the southern tier of the U.S. This energized track boosts the odds of heavy rain and coastal nor'easters, according to the FOX Forecast Center. Consequently, temperatures in the Southeast are expected to hover near normal while the East Coast sees wetter conditions than usual.

In contrast, most states along the Northern Tier, stretching from the Pacific Northwest through the Midwest and into New England, face a warmer-than-average winter. Traditional zones accustomed to cold snaps and deep snow will see below-average odds for seasonal accumulation, though individual outbreaks can still dump big storms on anyone in their path. Drought is currently forecast to develop across the Northern Rockies and other parts of the Intermountain West despite the southern benefits.