Strong El Niño Event Confirmed to Bring Global Extreme Weather

Scientists have confirmed that El Niño is firmly established and growing into a very strong event over the next few months. Experts warn this climate phenomenon will drive massive changes in global rainfall and temperatures, sparking floods, droughts, and extreme heat. A forecast from the World Meteorological Organization shows an exceptionally high probability that these disruptions will last until at least February. This marks the first time such a definitive update has been issued by any agency.

The Met Office says British autumn and early winter could become colder, wetter, and stormier under this influence. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. He added that science leaves no room for doubt about the planet moving into uncharted waters where temperatures keep climbing. Sea surface temperatures are rising steadily while the world enters a danger zone of extreme weather.

Guterres emphasized that the current race is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action. The goal must be to protect people from these mounting threats. We face a stark choice right now as conditions worsen globally.

Scientists warn that El Niño is firmly established and being supersized before our eyes as temperatures continue to climb. We must win that race.

The phenomenon, known technically as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, naturally shifts between hot El Niño phases and cool La Niña years every two to seven years. As we enter this current phase, powerful trade winds blowing hot water across the Pacific toward Australia weaken or even reverse direction. This allows cool waters welling up from deep ocean layers to stop flowing, causing heat to collect near the surface off South America's west coast. Eventually that warm water spreads out, raising average global temperatures and disrupting weather patterns worldwide.

Sea surface temperatures in the region at the heart of El Niño are already well above average and continue rising. The developing event has gathered pace dramatically recently. Pacific Ocean temperatures now exceed 2C above average in some regions. Scientists say warmth lurking beneath the surface is even more remarkable, with underwater areas reaching a staggering 8C above normal.

For September to November this year, WMO forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas globally. There is an exceptionally huge likelihood of nearly 100 per cent that El Niño will wreak havoc until February. Generally the event begins developing between March and June, reaching peak intensity from November through February. Its impact on global temperatures can extend beyond peak ocean warming and be most pronounced in the year after development.

'El Niño has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,' said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. 'We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies.'

Britons have been told to brace for a cold and stormy winter as warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific send waves rippling through the atmosphere. These waves push the world's most powerful weather systems, including the jet stream, off their usual course. This wreaks havoc on Britain's winter weather. This winter experts predict the jet stream will send storms toward the UK along fast-moving wind currents. While it is still too early to say exactly when these storms will occur, latest weather predictions agree that bad weather is increasingly likely.

Will Lang, chief meteorologist at the Met Office told the Daily Mail: 'El Niño conditions increase the chance of storms in late autumn and early winter.' Professor Bill McGuire, Professor Emeritus of Geophysical Hazards, said: 'Powerful El Niños typically bring mild, stormy Autumns and early Winters to the UK, followed by bitter cold, although this isn't set in stone.'

A separate study published last week found El Niño events have been ramping up for decades. Scientists from the University of Michigan examined corals in the Galapagos Islands to estimate strength of previous events. Their analysis revealed that El Niños have become nearly 40 per cent stronger in the last 40 years than the previous thousand. 'We don't see a time in the past where El Niños have been as strong as today,' said lead author Professor Julia Cole. 'We show that the strength of El Niño changes in parallel with the warming of global temperature.' Our findings tell us that the big El Niño events of the last 40 years are not normal in the context of the last thousand years.