Scientists warn restricted climate data access endangers vulnerable communities.

Scientists confirm last month marked the second-hottest May ever recorded. All current signs point toward a Super El Niño developing in coming months. Experts warn that limited, privileged access to critical climate data hinders accurate forecasting. This restricted information flow leaves vulnerable communities exposed to unpredictable weather risks. Without transparent data sharing, local leaders struggle to prepare for extreme heat events. The potential for severe flooding and drought intensifies as temperatures continue to climb. Communities without early warnings face devastating losses before storms even begin. Government agencies must break down barriers to ensure everyone receives timely alerts. Ignoring these climate signals endangers lives and damages essential infrastructure rapidly. We need immediate action to secure open access to vital environmental intelligence. Delaying this shift risks catastrophic impacts on the most at-risk populations globally.

England recently endured its warmest spring on record, a stark indicator of shifting climate patterns. The Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed that last month marked the second hottest May in history. Global average temperatures reached a balmy 15.81°C, sitting 0.55°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Sea surface temperatures also surged to 20.90°C, ranking as the second highest ever recorded for this time of year. Experts now warn that a Super El Niño may be approaching within the coming months. Should this event materialize, it could drive extreme heat nearly everywhere, potentially lifting global averages by up to 3°C this summer. Rainfall patterns worldwide face the risk of severe disruption under such conditions.

Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium–Range Weather Forecasts, noted that May 2026 extended a period of exceptional global warmth. She highlighted near-record temperatures in both the atmosphere and the ocean. In Europe specifically, an unusually early and intense heatwave demonstrated how quickly climate extremes are becoming the new normal rather than a rare exception. The region saw a rapid transition from cooler-than-average conditions to one of the most intense heatwaves ever observed so early in the year. Temperature records were broken across the UK, France, Ireland, and Portugal during the second half of the month.

Weather conditions varied significantly across the continent, creating a patchwork of extremes. Large portions of western, central, and eastern Europe experienced drier-than-average conditions throughout the month. Conversely, flooding struck Turkey, Bulgaria, and Moldova. Parts of northwest continental Europe, northern Scandinavia, Finland, Türkiye, and the Black Sea region received wetter-than-average rainfall. However, the most pressing concern remains the sea surface temperature, which stood just 0.03°C below the 2024 record of 20.93°C. Copernicus warned that exceptionally high sea surface temperatures persisted across a large portion of the tropical Pacific as the equatorial Pacific continues its transition toward El Niño conditions.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a natural climate pattern cycling between hot El Niño and cool La Niña phases every two to seven years. During the El Niño phase, warm waters building in the Pacific spread out and raise the Earth's average surface temperature. This trapped heat eventually escapes into the atmosphere, warming the planet for months. While this cycle has operated for hundreds of thousands of years, current signs suggest this year could host one of the strongest El Niño patterns ever recorded. The World Meteorological Organisation expects above-normal temperatures in nearly all parts of the globe.

Scientists from the WMO indicate an 80 per cent likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026, with a 90 per cent chance it will persist until at least November. UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated that the science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90 per cent certainty. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized the need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event that will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall. She noted that such events increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The recent El Niño of 2023–24 was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures seen in 2024. The WMO community will carefully monitor conditions to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate-sensitive sectors. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings remain vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and communities.