Rising Gas Prices Could Cost Republicans Midterm Seats Like Dems Lost In 2022

Republicans might face a political storm similar to what Democrats endured in 2022 as fuel costs climb before the midterm elections, according to an industry expert speaking to FOX Business this week. Patrick De Haan, who leads petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, warned that Americans could feel the same fate if prices stay high while the nation votes in November. The national average for a gallon of gas sits at $4.42 on Wednesday based on data from GasBuddy. That price point is dangerously close to what was seen last summer when costs hit an average of five dollars per gallon and Democrats lost their slim majority in the House of Representatives. They held control of both chambers heading into that election, much like Republicans do now.

Traditionally, high gas prices going into an election have a negative impact on the incumbent party. Democrats were hurt with high prices in 2022, and Republicans could feel that same fate in 2026, De Haan told FOX Business. Especially with fuel prices being so actively discussed in the media, it serves as a common reminder for Americans that costs remain very elevated for both gasoline and diesel. So generally speaking, high gas prices going into an election hurt an incumbent party and that is probably why we are seeing politicians at various levels trying to address the high prices.

The Trump administration is looking at the potential for a diesel export ban in hopes of reducing diesel prices, something that may be short-lived with a ban. Other states like Indiana and Georgia now, and potentially Ohio, are all looking at gas tax relief, something that is also showing up in other states. Governor Newsom is waiving California's fuel requirements to hopefully bring the onset of falling prices. These political maneuvers ahead of the election aim to drive prices down when they have been very high for seven months.

White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told FOX Business that President Trump remains committed to unleashing American energy dominance, cutting costs, and putting more money back in the pockets of hardworking American families. A few weeks ago, the president met with nearly a dozen refiners at the White House to discuss ways to expand our refining capacity which will lower prices at the pump. As the U.S. continues to maintain full control of the Strait of Hormuz oil and gas prices will fall back to pre-conflict levels.

In a recent Fox News Poll conducted in mid-September 61% of voters said the cost of gas prices is a major problem for them up from 48% two years ago. De Haan said gas prices could drop before November's midterm elections but how much better is really contingent on how these geopolitical tensions that have had a major impact on prices the last seven months continue to unfold. Generally speaking, gas prices do usually moderate in the fall regardless of political year or election. Gas prices always decline in the autumn as the nation transitions back to cheaper winter gasoline and as gasoline demand progressively declines with the onset of colder weather.

This year of course with geopolitical tensions between the U.S. The situation remains fluid and access to full details on policy shifts is often limited to insiders while the public waits for results at the pump.

And Iran and Ukraine and Russia have at least temporarily delayed that decline for now. They could impact the drop in the weeks ahead. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE ON FOX BUSINESS. For now though, the price of oil has declined somewhat as some crude gets through the Strait of Hormuz. It is possible we could start to see declines materialize soon. Yet volatility remains high before the election. These geopolitical tensions continue to play a role in the market. De Haan also told FOX Business about this shifting reality. The situation feels precarious but manageable for the moment.