Phillies clinch Wild Card berth with win over Rays

Major League Baseball adjusted the schedule so every game on Sunday would start within minutes of one another. That was the plan mostly. Most playoff spots were already settled a week or two before then. Only two races stretched all the way to the final day. The American League West saw the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers tied at 80-81 going into that last night. In the National League, the third wild card slot hung between the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks.

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The Phillies had a 99.1 percent chance of reaching the postseason last week according to FanGraphs. They did not collapse historically. A 7-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays secured a wild card series appearance for Philadelphia.

The Astros won 9-0 against the long-eliminated Athletics, so they avoided an 80-82 record. Yet they still made history in an embarrassing way. They are officially the worst division-winning team ever. The previous low point belonged to the 2005 San Diego Padres who won the NL West with an 82-80 record. Houston finished at 81-81, setting a new low winning percentage for a full season division winner.

Houston was extremely fortunate to end the year at .500. Wins and losses determine standings, but run differential predicts future records far better than past results usually suggest. The logic is simple: outscore opponents more and you likely win more games. One-run finishes do not hold up over time, while blowouts show true team strength.

Managers build expected records using these numbers. Over the history of baseball, a specific run differential should produce a set number of wins and losses. Miami outscored opponents by only three runs all season, matching an expected record of 81-81. They finished right on that mark because they were even with other clubs in the league.

Milwaukee showed the opposite end of the spectrum. Their run differential was +214, a league-best figure. That points to an expected record of 103-59, which matched their actual finish exactly.

Teams often beat or fall short of those expectations for many reasons. A weak bullpen can mean blowout wins but too many close losses. Bad luck plays a role. Injuries at the wrong time hurt performance. Poor defense sinks chances. Hitters struggle with runners in scoring position. Randomness defines baseball sometimes. Or one dominant closer shuts the door repeatedly in tight games.

This year's 81-81 Astros were so poor they got outscored by 32 runs over the season. That run gap points to an expected record of just 78-84. Rangers fans missed the final day and will be disappointed, but Texas was worse off on paper. Their run differential sat at -46, pointing toward a 76-86 expected record.

These are not good baseball teams.

So Houston should fail quickly in the postseason, right? Not at all. They face Chicago White Sox in a best-of-three wild card series. The Astros host that series because they hold division winners status.

Chicago is clearly superior on paper, yet playoff baseball relies so heavily on luck that any series remains a toss up with small samples. FanGraphs numbers show Houston holding a 55 percent chance to reach the ALDS despite their struggles.

If the Astros pull through in Texas, they face Cleveland next. The Guardians look extremely mediocre this year with an 85-77 record and a plus-11 run differential that barely hides their flaws. Some models give Cleveland slight favorites status at 57-43 odds, but nobody should call it a foregone conclusion just yet.

This setup could lead straight to the ALCS featuring an 81-win team. It feels like bad luck for fans who wanted better competition before the postseason started.

Major League Baseball always hoped last-minute drama would play out when they scheduled all final games around the same time on September 29th. They got that wish in spades this year.

They also received a division winner with no business being there because financial incentives push owners to spend as little money as possible while chasing eighty-five wins or fewer. The Astros managed exactly that by doing the bare minimum needed to secure their spot.

Fans were forced to watch what was supposed to be a competitive AL West battle turn into a lost cause before it even began.