Oxfam warns Ebola outbreak in Africa is far worse than official data shows.

The devastating Ebola outbreak currently ravaging Africa may be far more severe than official statistics indicate, with Oxfam issuing a stark warning that the virus is likely spreading undetected. This urgent alert comes just one day after the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) recorded a staggering 72 new cases in a single day, marking one of the highest daily tallies since the epidemic began in the region last month.

While the DRC's health ministry reports 782 confirmed cases, 181 deaths, and 51 recoveries, with an additional 19 deaths reported in neighbouring Uganda, these figures conflict with data from the World Health Organisation. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated that the outbreak has claimed more than 220 lives and that nearly 1,000 suspected cases existed by the end of May. Despite these discrepancies, the consensus among experts is that the true toll remains obscured.

Oxfam points to a critical lack of resources in Ituri, a primary epicentre of the crisis, as the primary driver allowing the virus to go undetected. The charity highlights that only one in five health facilities in the region has access to sufficient clean water, a necessity described as "the first line of defence against transmission." This scarcity is compounded by a severe shortage of basic protective equipment for frontline workers, conditions that are actively hampering containment efforts.

Manel Rebordosa, a field response coordinator for Oxfam in Ituri, emphasized the gravity of the situation regarding water access. "Water - the absolute first line of defense in any public health emergency - is simply not available," Rebordosa stated. She noted that miners working in surrounding areas lack toilets and handwashing stations, forcing them to return to virus-stricken communities without protection. Furthermore, clean water costs two dollars for 20 litres, a sum that is financially out of reach for most local families.

The crisis is further exacerbated by a dramatic decline in contact tracing, a vital public health tactic used to track and monitor potential exposures. Currently, this process reaches only 43 per cent of known contacts, a figure that is almost half the rate achieved during the 2018 to 2020 outbreak in the same region. Rebordosa explained, "One month into the 2018 outbreak, health care workers achieved contact tracing rates where nearly eight in ten known contacts were successfully monitored. Today, following the withdrawal of US funding for disease surveillance and severe funding shortfalls, contact tracing is reaching fewer than half of the contacts." She added that this gap is not merely a statistic but a "painful reality that allows the virus to spread undetected through communities."

The backdrop to this outbreak is a region destabilized by conflict that has raged since March 2022. Oxfam claims that more than 70 healthcare facilities have been destroyed, leaving a dire ratio of just 0.2 doctors for every 1,000 people. In areas such as North Kivu, patients are succumbing to the virus rapidly due to this catastrophic lack of healthcare access. With funding cutbacks and infrastructure in ruins, the potential for the virus to spread silently remains a looming threat to the entire region.

A deadly new chapter has opened in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where a terrifying reality is emerging: many individuals are succumbing to the virus before they even receive a diagnosis. This tragic gap in identification raises chilling fears that these unrecorded deaths are responsible for a significant portion of the outbreak's missing cases.

The crisis shows no signs of abating, and the resources needed to fight it are evaporating. Global funding for the DRC has been slashed by nearly half, dropping to approximately £1 billion—the lowest level recorded in a decade. With such a drastic reduction in aid, there is mounting anxiety that this virus could soon escalate into a global pandemic. The United States' health protection agency has already sounded the alarm, declaring that this specific outbreak could become the largest on record.

Panic has also spread beyond Africa's borders. Suspected cases recently surfaced in Brazil, Italy, and Austria, though subsequent tests ultimately returned negative results. Despite the lack of confirmed cases in Europe, the threat is palpable. NHS staff across the United Kingdom have been ordered to prepare for the possibility of the virus reaching British shores. Earlier this month, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) issued urgent directives to hospitals, general practitioners, and frontline services. They were told to ensure they can rapidly identify and isolate any suspected Ebola patients. While officials stress that the risk to Britain remains low, they warn that imported cases are a distinct possibility.

Healthcare providers are under strict instruction to audit their stockpiles of personal protective equipment (PPE) and verify that all staff are fully trained in its use. Clear protocols for managing suspected cases must be in place immediately. Clinicians are being reminded to scrutinize any patient who presents with a high fever and acute illness, specifically if they have traveled from affected regions within the past 21 days—the virus's incubation period. Under these guidelines, suspected cases require urgent treatment, immediate isolation, and assessment by staff equipped with protective measures. Strict infection control procedures are non-negotiable, and any potential case must be escalated rapidly to specialist public health teams, as Ebola is a notifiable disease in the UK.

The stakes are incredibly high. The current crisis is driven by the Bundibugyo virus, a strain that currently has no vaccine to help contain it. This stands in stark contrast to the West African outbreak of 2014 to 2016, which claimed 11,000 lives. Although the symptoms remain consistent across all Ebola variants—starting with a flu-like fever, headache, muscle pain, vomiting, and diarrhea before progressing to internal bleeding, organ failure, and death—the lack of a vaccine for this specific strain makes containment far more difficult.

The origin of the Bundibugyo variant remains unknown, though some researchers believe it was transmitted to humans by fruit bats. Scientists at Oxford University are racing against time to develop a vaccine, but they offer a sobering warning: it will take two to three months before the jab can even be tested on humans. This timeline makes it highly unlikely that patients in Africa will receive the drug within the next six months. While a successful vaccine would likely protect patients from severe illness and limit the virus's spread, experts caution that there is no guarantee the new jab will be effective.

This is not a brand-new pathogen. The Bundibugyo strain is not new, but it is rare. First recorded in 2007 in western Uganda, it was named after the area where it was spotted. It appeared again in the DRC in 2012, but both instances were limited in scope, involving just over 200 combined confirmed and probable cases and around 66 deaths. The virus spreads through direct contact with the blood or bodily fluids of a sick or deceased person, or through contact with contaminated surfaces. Patients can carry the virus for up to 21 days before symptoms begin, which is when experts believe they become infectious. The current outbreak was officially declared an international health emergency by the WHO on May 17, marking a critical turning point in the global response to this evolving threat.