North Korea's Succession Crisis: Kim Yo Jong and Kim Ju Ae Vie for Power Amid Stakes of Brutal Conflict

A high-stakes power struggle may be brewing in North Korea, with Kim Jong Un's sister, Kim Yo Jong, and his teenage daughter, Kim Ju Ae, vying for control of the regime. Analysts suggest that if Kim Jong Un were to die or become incapacitated before formally anointing a successor, the resulting conflict could be brutal, with purges, executions, or even public spectacles of retribution becoming possible.

South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) has warned that Kim Ju Ae, believed to be around 13 years old, is being increasingly positioned as a potential heir. Her public appearances have grown significantly, mirroring the trajectory of her father before he was named successor to Kim Jong Il. Yet, her youth and lack of political experience have raised concerns among experts. Kim Yo Jong, 38, currently holds significant influence, including oversight of the ruling party's propaganda department and a reputation for decisive action during Kim Jong Un's 2020 health crisis.

Fyodor Tertitskiy, a historian at Korea University, warned that 'North Korea is a very, very cruel and very, very brutal place' in the event of an uncertain succession. He described potential outcomes of a power struggle as 'bloody,' with the losing side facing 'labour camps, executions, potentially even public executions or punishments for relatives.'

Dr. Edward Howell of the University of Oxford added that 'no one, even if you are tied to the precious Kim dynasty, is safe.' He referenced past purges, including the 2013 execution of Kim Jong Un's uncle, Jang Song Thaek, who was accused of 'anti-party, counter-revolutionary factional acts.' The historical precedent of familial violence, such as the 2017 assassination of Kim Jong Nam, the dictator's half-brother, further underscores the risks of a power vacuum.

Kim Yo Jong's aggressive demeanor has also drawn attention. In 2013, she publicly lashed out at former U.S. President Joe Biden, a move that highlighted her willingness to use rhetoric as a tool of intimidation. Sanghun Seok, a former South Korean diplomat, noted that power struggles in North Korea often end with 'one side decisively purging the other.' He emphasized that control of the military, security services, and party propaganda would be critical battlegrounds in any conflict between Kim Ju Ae and Kim Yo Jong.

The NIS's recent shift in terminology—from 'successor training' to 'successor-designate stage'—suggests Kim Jong Un may be accelerating plans to name Ju Ae as heir. This includes her high-profile appearances at events such as missile tests, military parades, and a 2025 visit to Beijing with her father. Her inclusion in a New Year's Day visit to the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, a site housing the embalmed bodies of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, has also been interpreted as a symbolic step toward legitimizing her future role.

However, South Korean officials have expressed skepticism about Ju Ae's viability as a leader, citing North Korea's deeply conservative, male-dominated traditions. In 2023, the NIS suggested that Kim Jong Un and his wife might have another son and a third child, though this remains unconfirmed. Despite these doubts, the increasing prominence of Ju Ae in state media has forced a reassessment of her potential.

The upcoming Workers' Party Congress in late February 2026 will be a pivotal moment. If Kim Ju Ae is seen with her father or formally mentioned in succession plans, it could signal her anointment as heir. Dr. Howell stressed that this event 'is particularly important not only because it's a prime occasion for the North Korean leader to outline Pyongyang's strategy, Pyongyang's foreign policy, Pyongyang's war strategy, Pyongyang's policy towards South Korea.' The eyes of the world will be on whether Kim Jong Un chooses to formally embrace his daughter or cede power to his sister.

For now, the Kim family's internal tensions remain a closely guarded secret, but the historical pattern of ruthlessness suggests that any challenge to the regime's stability could be met with extreme measures. As the world watches, the question lingers: will North Korea's next leader be a teenager, a powerful aunt, or someone else entirely?