NOAA warns millions to update emergency plans as historic Category 5 storm risks remain despite below-average forecasts.

Millions of Americans are being urged to immediately review their emergency preparedness plans as new forecasts indicate a single storm could cause widespread devastation across the United States. On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a warning stating that despite expectations for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, history demonstrates that periods of lower activity can still yield destructive Category 5 landfalls.

Meteorologists note that several competing weather patterns will influence the upcoming season. While the El Niño phenomenon is projected to strengthen and typically suppress Atlantic hurricane development, other factors remain concerning. Specifically, unusually warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and weaker-than-average trade winds could still provide the necessary fuel for storm intensification. Ken Graham, Director of NOAA's National Weather Service, emphasized the uncertainty inherent in seasonal predictions. "Although El Niño's impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold," Graham stated. He added that waiting for a storm to threaten is insufficient, urging residents to prepare now to stay ahead of any potential event.

The official outlook projects three to six hurricanes with wind speeds exceeding 74 mph and one to three major hurricanes with winds surpassing 111 mph. The Atlantic hurricane season officially commences on June 1 and concludes on November 30. The forecasted list of named storms begins with Arthur, followed by Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly. Although there is a 55 percent probability that the season will be below average, forecasters caution that a 10 percent chance exists for activity to exceed normal levels.

In March, AccuWeather released its 2026 hurricane outlook, calling for immediate preparation among millions of residents. The forecast specifically highlighted vulnerability in Virginia, the Carolinas, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather's Lead Hurricane Expert, warned against complacency. "There is no reason to let your guard down this year," DaSilva said. "It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption and heartache." He advised residents to review insurance coverage, safety plans, and local evacuation routes while ensuring emergency supplies are fully stocked.

NOAA officials reinforced these messages, urging those in high-risk zones to secure essentials such as gasoline, food, water, and other necessities before emergency lines form. While the Atlantic is expected to be relatively quiet, officials warned that the outlook for the Pacific hurricane basin presents a starkly different risk profile. The potential for billions of dollars in damage and significant disruption underscores the critical need for proactive community preparedness regardless of the anticipated seasonal average.

Virginia endured Hurricane Erin's fury in 2025, as shown in the image above.

Government agencies now forecast an above-normal 2026 hurricane season for the eastern Pacific.

Experts assign a 70 percent probability to this heightened activity.

Officials state there is a 20 percent chance for a near-normal season.

Only a 10 percent chance exists for conditions falling below average.

The outlook predicts between 15 and 22 named storms.

This count includes nine to 14 hurricanes and five to nine major hurricanes.

Major hurricanes reach Category 3 intensity or stronger.

These figures sit well above historical averages from 1991 to 2020.

Historical data recorded 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.

Forecasters also expect Accumulated Cyclone Energy to range from 120 percent to 190 percent of the median.

Homes leveled after Hurricane Helene hit Horseshoe Beach, Florida, on September 28, 2024.

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially runs from May 15 through November 30.

Activity typically peaks between July and September.

The region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 140 degrees west longitude.

It also extends north of the equator.

NOAA warns the central Pacific likely faces above-normal storm activity this year.

The agency predicts between five and 13 combined named storms and tropical depressions.

This count compares to the historical average of 4.4 storms.