Morocco Surpasses South Africa to Top Africa's Industrialisation Index

For the first time in its history, Morocco has claimed the top spot on Africa's industrialisation index, surpassing South Africa in a contest that had long been dominated by the southern powerhouse. According to a newly released report by the African Development Bank (AfDB) from Abidjan, Ivory Coast, this shift marks a significant change in the continent's economic landscape. The 2025 Africa Industrialisation Index places Morocco at 0.8415 points, edging out South Africa's 0.8396 points. The bank attributes this breakthrough to Morocco's consistent industrial upgrades, the broadening of its export portfolio, and the successful execution of its strategic industrial policies.

South Africa retains its status as one of the continent's premier industrial economies, yet the report highlights a troubling trend of gradual decline in its competitive edge. Once the undisputed leader since 2010, South Africa's score has slipped from 0.8819 points that decade to 0.8396 points in 2024. This narrowing gap underscores a broader reality: while North Africa leads the charge, gains across the entire continent remain both slow and uneven.

The index evaluates industrialisation through three critical lenses: industrial performance, direct drivers like investment and infrastructure, and indirect factors such as the rule of law and inflation. The data reveals a clear dominance by Arab nations, with Egypt securing third place at 0.7827 and Tunisia following closely at 0.7760. Algeria rounded out the top six with 0.6661. Consequently, four Arab nations now occupy the top six industrial economies on the continent. Together with Mauritius, Eswatini, Senegal, Namibia, and Ivory Coast, these nations form a competitive tier that significantly outpaces the rest of Africa.

Geographically, North Africa remains the most industrialised region, holding a regional score of 0.6891, well ahead of Southern Africa's 0.5850. Most countries in the northern region scored above the continental average, with the notable exceptions of Libya and Mauritania, which fell into medium and lower-middle industrialisation categories, respectively. This regional disparity illustrates how uneven development persists despite overall improvements.

The report paints a complex picture of progress. While forty-one of the continent's fifty-four countries improved their scores between 2010 and 2024, only twenty-four managed to climb the rankings, and five stayed static. The continental average industrialisation score climbed from 0.5134 to 0.5445, a modest 6 percent increase. Manufacturing value added grew from $285 billion in 2020 to $351 billion in 2025, yet these aggregate figures mask the struggle many nations face in accelerating their industrialisation.

Despite its vast potential, the African continent currently contributes less than 2 percent of the world's total manufacturing output and accounts for merely 1.4 percent of global manufactured exports. Economic indicators further reflect this stagnation; in 2025, the continent's manufacturing value added per capita stood at $226.7, a figure that remains significantly below the peak of $254.9 recorded in 2014.

A recent report attributes this sluggish industrial growth primarily to fragmented markets and a critical lack of regional integration. The disparity in trade cohesion is stark: between 2022 and 2024, intra-African trade comprised only 14.4 percent of the continent's total trade volume, a fraction that pales in comparison to the 60 percent observed in Asia and 57 percent in Europe.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) identifies that the obstacles facing African industry extend far beyond simple tariff walls. The region is hindered by non-tariff barriers, inadequate infrastructure, inconsistent technical and regulatory standards, and underdeveloped regional value chains. These structural weaknesses severely constrain African companies from expanding their production capabilities across national borders.

To overcome these hurdles, the AfDB argues that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) must evolve from a mechanism focused solely on "integration for trade" to one centered on "integration for production." This strategic shift would require linking physical infrastructure, industrial policy, investment flows, and regional value chains to create a cohesive industrial ecosystem.

The economic stakes of such reform are substantial. The bank estimates that the effective implementation of the AfCFTA could boost African incomes by approximately 7 percent by 2035 and unlock up to $450 billion in additional economic value. Looking toward the mid-century, projections indicate that intra-African trade will surge dramatically, with agricultural and food products expected to rise by 60 percent, manufacturing by 48 percent, and services by 34 percent by 2045.