Kazakhstan urges freezing Ukraine war after drone attacks halt oil exports.

Freeze the conflict": Drones slow Kazakh oil flow amid Russia-Ukraine war. Kazakhstan's exports have halted as drone attacks disrupt supplies, creating real risks for the economy and energy markets. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev sat next to Vladimir Putin on Saturday while cautiously weighing in on a war now five years old.

"If I may offer my humble opinion … perhaps it is time to freeze this conflict and return to the Istanbul formula 2.0," he told reporters in Omsk, Siberia. He pointed to a failed agreement that once envisioned an immediate stop to hostilities along current front lines and further talks brokered by Western powers.

After Moscow invaded Ukraine in full scale back in 2022, Tokayev dared to contradict Putin by insisting Kazakhstan would not recognize occupied regions as Russian territory. This time he praised the Kremlin's "diplomatic flexibility" and listed Russia among the great powers capable of guaranteeing peace.

"All of this should be stopped, because what's happening plays into the hands of the enemies of Russia and the Ukrainian people," Tokayev said. His words arrived just as Kazakhstan announced a slash in oil production on Thursday. Drone attacks blamed on Ukraine forced its main export terminal on the Black Sea to shut down.

Kazakhstan boasts several "supergiant" oil fields that serve as the EU's second-largest source of crude. The product is light but "sour," or hard to process, and carries the CPC brand named for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Western giants like Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell are members of this group.

The pipeline pumping crude westward across dry steppes stretches 1,500km to Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. That port has become a new hideout for the Russian Black Sea Fleet after it fled annexed Crimea following hundreds of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes.

Novorossiysk is also a target of Ukraine's new policy striking Moscow's "shadow fleet" that ships oil despite Western sanctions. In recent weeks, drones hit almost 200 vessels in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea. These attacks struck tankers carrying CPC oil and damaged the consortium's marine terminal.

The strikes began in November 2025 but intensified this month. Officials in Astana reacted with anger. On July 19, the Foreign Ministry called them an "unacceptable encroachment" on economic interests. They claimed these acts were designed to destabilize legitimate trade and global energy markets.

Ukraine's Ambassador Viktor Mayko retorted the next day by saying there was "no proof" the drones were Ukrainian. He urged Astana to refrain from hasty accusations. By Thursday, shipments were temporarily suspended until the situation normalized, according to the Energy Ministry.

Oil and gas account for about a fifth of Kazakhstan's GDP. Eighty percent of its oil exports are at risk now. This is a direct strike on the economy and budget, noted regional expert Daniil Kislov. For average Kazakhs worried about inflation, this disruption feels like less than their biggest worry just like the war that triggered it.

"I don't care, because the money doesn't reach me anyway," said Alzhas, a bank clerk in Almaty. He withheld his last name due to security concerns. He noted people stopped arguing about the war since everyone asks how to earn food money first. The rest seems irrelevant right now.

EU members depending on Kazakh crude are also concerned. Romania tops the list, getting more than 60 percent of its crude from Kazakhstan before processing it domestically. Interim Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan tried to dissuade Romanians from panicking on Thursday. He said the government did not expect any supply problems.

Kazakhstan faces a production drop of up to 15 percent if shipments do not resume soon, according to recent statements. The long-term picture for Kazakhstan remains dark and difficult for experts watching the region closely. Aleksey Kusch from Kyiv warns that ongoing disruptions will force more Kazakh oil onto expensive routes crossing the Caspian Sea into Azerbaijan. This shift could eventually wipe out vital oil revenues for the nation. Volodymyr Fesenko, who leads the Penta think tank in Kyiv, calls the current situation uneasy and deeply controversial. He notes there might be informal pressure on Ukraine coming from the White House because American oil companies hold stakes in Kazakh fields. Persistent advice could reach President Volodomyr Zelenskyy to avoid touching the terminal in Novorossiisk, he said. Yet Fesenko predicts no fatal or negative consequences for Kyiv will follow such warnings. Solutions might be worked out behind closed doors without official declarations. Some accounts suggest the United States did indeed step into this diplomatic fray. Mike Wirth, Chief Executive of Chevron, met with White House officials earlier in the week to try and solve the matter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal on Friday. An unnamed US official told the Journal that President Donald Trumps administration warned Ukraine against attacking non-Russian ships operating in the Black Sea.