Kathy Hochul's Lead Shrinks to 10 Points in New York Race

Kathy Hochul's lead in New York is fading fast, according to a fresh poll from Siena University released Wednesday. The data shows likely voters are turning colder toward Governor Hochul and also expressing deep unease about the Democratic Socialists of America. With less than three months left before Election Day, Hochul trails Republican Bruce Blakeman by only 10 points among those who say they will vote in the gubernatorial race. Her margin has shrunk from a comfortable 20-point lead when registered voters were asked the same question back in June.

Steven Greenberg of Siena Research Institute put this in perspective. He noted that four years ago, at the start of Hochul's first term, she led her then-opponent Lee Zeldin by 14 points before winning re-election by six. "At this point four years ago, August 2022... she led her opponent," Greenberg said. The gap has narrowed significantly since then.

Blakeman, who serves as Nassau County executive, pushed back against the results in a statement to Fox News Digital. He claimed recent polling had shown his side virtually tied with Hochul and dismissed this specific survey as flawed. "All of the polls we have seen in the last two months have us virtually tied," Blakeman said. He added that Siena's poll is often off, and it continues to be off.

The tension between the candidates is palpable. Blakeman accused Hochul of trying to hide her struggles with high taxes, soaring electric bills, and rising crime. "We know and she knows this race is neck and neck," he stated. He argued that Hochul desperately wants people to believe she is far ahead when the reality on the ground suggests otherwise.

The survey was conducted between Aug. 3–6 among 811 New York likely voters. The margin of error for those who finished the full questionnaire was +/- 4.6 percentage points. On specific issues, Hochul retains some traction. Voters believe she will do a better job making prices affordable and increasing the supply of housing. She leads on affordability by seven points and on housing supply by 16 points.

Safety remains a sticking point. Respondents were split on keeping New Yorkers safe, with Hochul leading by just three points. The issue of addressing undocumented immigrants living in the state was even tighter, with Hochul ahead by only one point. Greenberg explained that both candidates are holding onto their partisan bases tightly. Hochul commands 80-8% among Democrats while Blakeman holds 84-9% among Republicans. Independent voters favor Blakeman by a narrow five-point margin.

Geography matters immensely in this race. Hochul owns a commanding 64-19% lead in New York City, but she loses ground in the downstate suburbs to Blakeman by eight points. The two candidates are running virtually even in upstate regions and among men and white voters. Hochul maintains large leads with women, Latinos, and Black voters.

This is not just a state race; it reflects a national shift as well. For the first time, Siena asked about the Democratic Socialists of America. The group has gained influence across the country, highlighted by Zohran Mamdani winning the New York City mayoral race last year. But this poll found a negative favorability rating for DSA among likely voters in New York. Democrats view the group favorably at 50-21%, while 82% of Republicans and 57% of independents hold an unfavorable view.

Fox News Digital has reached out to Hochul's campaign for comment on these shifting numbers. The race is tightening, and every new piece of data changes the conversation.