Israel Vote: Netanyahu Leads, But Opposition Coalition Appears Ahead

Tel Aviv, Israel. Tuesday. The lines were long, the atmosphere thick. Israelis flocked to polling stations in record numbers for the first national vote since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack. Initial exit polls point to a dramatic outcome. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party looks set to win the most seats. Yet, his coalition appears short of the parliamentary majority needed to rule. This opens the door to a potential change in leadership.

Projections from Israel’s three major TV networks, released after polls closed at 10 p.m. local time (4 p.m. ET), sketch the picture. Likud is projected to take 25 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Gadi Eisenkot, the former military chief, leads the charge for his Yashar party. Channels 12 and 13 polls show Yashar winning 23 seats. Kan 11 puts it at 21.

The balance of power is tight. Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc is projected to hold 50 seats. The main opposition parties are expected to grab 53. Arab parties should secure 17. Neither side reaches the 61 seats generally required to form a government. It is a stalemate waiting to happen.

Netanyahu’s position remains shaky despite his party leading. The opposition, joined by Arab factions, would control a combined 70 seats. That majority does not guarantee they will govern together. But it is a powerful bargaining chip.

Eisenkot emerges as the leading challenger to Netanyahu. This sets the stage for weeks of intense coalition negotiations. Netanyahu could lose power even if Likud finishes first. The stakes are high, with an Iran threat looming over the country.

These results are preliminary projections, not the final count. Numbers may shift as ballots are tallied in the coming days. The day at the polls was extraordinary. Participation reached levels unseen in decades.

Voter turnout surged to a historic high. By 4 p.m. local time (10 a.m. ET), 55.7% of eligible voters had cast ballots, according to Israel's Central Elections Committee. That is the highest figure recorded at that hour since measurements began in 1973. It underscores the intensity of this national moment.

Officials streamlined voting procedures to handle the crowd. They assured voters that anyone arriving before the 10 p.m. deadline could still vote. The election was widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership. Three years of war have left deep scars. Questions persist about responsibility for the security failures that allowed Hamas terrorists to kill approximately 1,200 people and abduct 251 others on Oct. 7, 2023.

Despite President Donald Trump’s strong backing, JD Vance declined to endorse Netanyahu. Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, campaigned on his record. He highlighted Israel's military achievements against Iran and its regional proxies. He also pointed to his relationship with the American president. The vote is in. Now comes the wait.

The final hours of the campaign turned into a desperate scramble for every last ballot. Netanyahu, Eisenkot, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, and other party leaders launched an intensive push to mobilize their bases and convert undecided voters. Likud prepared hundreds of targeted campaign videos and social media messages, making digital outreach a central pillar of its late-stage strategy. Eisenkot’s team urged supporters to rally behind Yashar as the primary alternative to Likud. Bennett, meanwhile, crisscrossed cities to engage voters directly, often through WhatsApp conversations.

Critics accused Netanyahu of refusing to accept responsibility for the October 7 security failures. They also opposed his government's approach to investigating the failures that preceded the massacre. The stakes are high. The key question now is which candidate can secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers when President Isaac Herzog consults with the newly elected parliamentary factions. If Eisenkot can obtain those recommendations, including from Arab parties, he would have a strong claim to receive the first opportunity to form a government. This holds true even though Netanyahu’s Likud is projected to remain the largest individual party.

Arab parties could recommend Eisenkot without formally joining his governing coalition. However, the final decision rests with Herzog, who is tasked with selecting the lawmaker he believes has the best chance of forming a government. Securing the first mandate would not guarantee Eisenkot could assemble a governing majority. That leaves the possibility of another political deadlock hanging in the air.

The closing days were particularly important because a relatively small share of voters remained undecided about which party to support. A Times of Israel poll published five days before the election found that 87% of respondents had already made their final choice. Only 2.4% remained undecided between the pro and anti-Netanyahu political blocs. Other surveys suggested a larger pool of undecided voters, although many were choosing between parties within the same political camp rather than switching sides.

That distinction could prove decisive in Israel's parliamentary system. Political parties need at least 3.25% of valid votes to enter the 120-seat Knesset. Even a slight change in the vote share of smaller parties could shift several parliamentary seats. It could determine whether either camp has a realistic path to power.

Despite exit poll projections, the identity of Israel's next prime minister may remain uncertain for weeks. Unlike in the United States, Israelis vote for political parties rather than directly electing their head of government. The 120 seats in parliament are allocated proportionally. Parties must secure at least 3.25% of valid votes to win representation.

Once the final results are certified, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult with the newly elected political factions. He will select the lawmaker he believes has the strongest chance of forming a government. That candidate will have 28 days to negotiate a governing coalition, with the possibility of a 14-day extension. Official results are scheduled to be published by Nov. 4. Until a new government takes office, Netanyahu's outgoing government will remain in power.