Israel Election: Fractured Right Wing Leaves Netanyahu Lacking Clear Majority

Polls closed in Israel’s legislative election, and the early numbers tell a story of a fractured right wing. With more than half of ballots counted, The Times of Israel projected Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc to capture 56 seats. Gadi Eisenkot’s alliance sits just behind at 49. Neither group holds a clear path to a governing majority. The situation looks messy.

Prime Minister Netanyahu stood before supporters at Likud headquarters in West Jerusalem on Tuesday. He argued that a right-wing government must form to protect Israel’s long-term security. He rejected the idea of partnering with Arab parties, calling them opponents of the state’s existence. Netanyahu insisted the "true" election results are still one or two days away. He acknowledged Likud is projected to become the largest party in Israel.

The lead is distinct but not decisive. Projections from Israeli Channels 12 and 13 estimate Likud will win 27 seats. Eisenkot’s Yashar party trails with 21. That gives Likud a clear top spot in parliament, even if it cannot rule alone.

Netanyahu spent time detailing his record since taking office in 2022. He claimed to have changed the face of the Middle East. He listed the eliminations of high-profile targets: Mohammed Deif, Ismail Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar, Hassan Nasrallah, and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

"We established security zones deep inside Gaza, in Lebanon, in Syria," he stated. "We removed an immediate existential threat that hung over us, the danger of immediate destruction." He added that Israel struck the Iranian regime and pushed it to the edge of the abyss. Netanyahu declared Iran weaker than ever and Israel stronger than ever.

He sees a "historical opportunity" alongside US President Donald Trump. The goal is to remove the existential threat of Iran once and for all.

Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador who served as consul general in New York City, offered a different perspective. He warned that the party securing the majority may have to seek an uncomfortable coalition deal to govern. However, he noted that opposition voters would likely reject any deal struck with Netanyahu’s camp.

Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera’s senior political analyst, observed that Netanyahu attempted to put on a "brave face" during his speech. Bishara argued the prime minister is projecting a kind of success he does not merit. He cannot form a coalition. Furthermore, being the largest party hides a stark reality: this is the lowest Likud has reached since 2009.

Political analyst Dan Perry agreed with the assessment of spin. He told Al Jazeera that Netanyahu used his speech to spin the situation as best as he could after exit polls were released. The numbers are in. The coalition math remains difficult.