Iran Signals Diplomatic Opening While Preparing for Preemptive Strikes

Tehran is signaling a potential diplomatic opening with Washington, even as both capitals keep their fingers on the trigger. Ongoing contacts through mediators have created a narrow window for negotiation, though the backdrop remains charged with the threat of renewed military escalation.

After two days of talks mediated by Qatar, Iranian authorities indicated that a deal is still on the table. The condition is simple: their demands must be tangibly implemented. Simultaneously, Tehran has doubled down on its willingness to expand attacks or even launch preemptive strikes if it concludes war is inevitable.

“We are prepared for all scenarios,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera on Saturday. “We have upgraded our weaponry, addressed our vulnerabilities, and tested new arms. Our forces are at the highest level of readiness.”

These remarks landed alongside comments from US President Donald Trump, who said on Saturday that the talks were going “fine” but insisted Iranian authorities were not “reliable.” The Republican leader, who ordered attacks alongside Israel against Iran on February 28, has repeatedly raised the prospect of once again hitting the country’s civilian infrastructure. In recent weeks, he suggested an attack could potentially take place after the November 3 midterm elections in the US.

“We still have to take care of, I would say, one or two sites, but we can do that in 10 minutes,” Trump told reporters at a Halloween party at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida regarding further bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The core of the recent breakthrough involves sequencing and timeline. The mediated talks held in Tehran on Friday and then in Qatar on Saturday appear to have produced a tangible result: a shorter period for enforcing Iran’s proposal to partly reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran had previously offered a seven-day window. That has now come down to two, Araghchi confirmed in his interview with Al Jazeera.

Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow with the Center for International Policy, noted there are “indications” of US interest in a negotiated settlement. She cited the continuing Qatar-mediated talks and US Vice President JD Vance’s recent outreach as evidence.

“However, Iran is seeking a series of concessions while the United States insists on progress on Iran’s nuclear programme before concessions are made,” she told Al Jazeera. “Therefore the central difficulty is sequencing and leverage. Each side wants the other to act first.”

Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, argues that Araghchi’s two-day offer indicates some flexibility over sequencing. This could allow both sides to claim an initial diplomatic achievement without immediately resolving their fundamental disagreements.

“However, the military statements show the limits of this opening. Iran appears increasingly determined to prevent a repetition of previous scenarios in which negotiations or temporary ceasefires were followed by renewed military conflict,” he wrote on social media. “From Tehran’s perspective, the objective is to make another attack so costly and unpredictable that Washington would have to reconsider the option altogether.”

While the talks continued on Saturday, the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei announced that he had met earlier with top military commanders. He demanded “maximum deterrence” through preparedness for an immediate response “without geographical restriction” to any threat. Targets would include “tangible and intangible” US and Israeli assets, Khamenei said.

Tehran has long threatened that any fresh strikes on its civilian infrastructure will trigger retaliation against seabed cables and regional networks. Following Khamenei’s latest remarks, commanders from the general staff, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the conventional army each declared their readiness to unleash missiles, drones, and other weapons if the conflict escalates further. State television broadcast footage on Sunday showing munitions being extracted from massive underground depots and deployed during the eight months of ongoing warfare. Officials signaled they anticipate additional US and Israeli attacks, particularly targeting Iran’s power grid.

Gholamreza Jalali, head of the National Organization for Passive Defense, outlined a strategy to protect critical infrastructure. Speaking on Sunday, he identified fourteen sectors heavily reliant on electricity that would require immediate support if fighting resumes. He refused to name them. “Adopting preventive measures in the area of passive defence for the electricity grid is a fundamental principle that all authorities must follow up in their capacities,” he stated. Officials are also considering “network islanding,” a practice designed to segment the grid so that a single bomb cannot cripple the entire system simultaneously.

Tensions remain high in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels that refuse to coordinate with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, an Iranian body established to enforce sovereignty in the waterway, continue to face attacks. At least four tankers sustained hits on Friday and Saturday, though not all incidents are confirmed by monitors. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that a liquefied petroleum gas carrier took three Iranian projectiles on Saturday. The strike occurred roughly 40 nautical miles south of Lavan Island, deep within the Gulf.

Security chief Mohsen Rezaei told state television on Saturday night that normal transit in the strait remains impossible unless Washington meets Tehran’s demands. He listed a specific sequence of conditions for de-escalation. The US must lift its naval blockade, which has halted oil exports and most trade through Iran’s southern ports. Additionally, Washington needs to issue waivers for oil sanctions, unfreeze Iranian assets abroad, cease hostilities on all regional fronts including Lebanon, and recognize a bilateral Iran-Oman arrangement for the strait.

Rezaei noted he has not yet responded to a letter from JD Vance. However, he characterized the missive as showing a “positive change in tone.” Mostafa Najafi, a Tehran-based analyst linked to Rezaei, warned that if these conditions remain unmet, the letter will likely go unanswered. He argued that negotiations, including those over Iran’s nuclear program, cannot advance to a higher level without compliance. “It is unclear how willing Washington is to accept these demands. It is clear that not recognising rights emphasised by Iran will lead to the failure of the negotiations,” he wrote on X.

Washington has intensified its pressure through Operation Economic Outcast, combining blockades, sanctions, and restrictions on overland trade and aviation. A US Treasury report, publicized by Axios to inform President Trump’s decision-making, revealed that no new oil had been loaded onto tankers at Iranian terminals since August 25. Overseas crude deliveries have dropped significantly. Iran’s year-on-year inflation approached 90 percent in September, while the national currency continued to weaken. The report described the Iranian economy as “crippled” by these combined measures, though it stopped short of claiming the system was on the verge of total collapse.