Iowa Voters Shift as Democrats Gain Ground in Midterms

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Nearly two-thirds of Iowans who talked with the Daily Mail recently said they do not intend to cast a ballot in next month's midterms. The real question is which voters will actually stay home. Iowa has shifted from a battleground state into a Republican stronghold during the Trump era, yet Democrats are now suddenly competitive in key races here. That includes the Senate contest pitting Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek.

The Daily Mail spent two days traveling through northern Iowa speaking with likely voters and everyday citizens who repeatedly voiced dissatisfaction with how things run in Washington. Among the people expected to vote, Democrats looked much more energized while Republicans were not automatically loyal backers of their party's candidate. Supporters for Hinson brought the energy at a get-out-the-vote bus tour stop located at the Decker Truck Line corporate headquarters and terminal in Fort Dodge, which reporters attended.

But just a few miles away, inside the town's hollowed-out downtown filled with empty storefronts, the mood was very different. Travis Lawson, 36 years old, lives on Social Security and disability. He spoke with the Daily Mail in Fort Dodge on Wednesday. Mindy, a 49-year-old healthcare worker living in Fort Dodge, Iowa is not planning to vote this year. She told reporters she simply does not see the point right now. Travis Lawson is a Trump fan who likes the way they do stuff and plans to vote Republican.

The gap between enthusiasm at campaign stops and apathy in quiet neighborhoods highlights a deep fracture within the electorate. When half of those surveyed say they won't show up, local races could hinge on turnout rather than policy debates. Ashley Hinson needs that energy from her base while Josh Turek tries to find voters who feel left behind by the status quo. The risk is clear: if these communities disengage, their voices vanish from the ballot box entirely.

Just not for Hinson. Mindy, 49 years old with two children living in Fort Dodge, told the Daily Mail she has no plans to cast a ballot this year. She works in healthcare after finishing a local two-year college program but says politicians are simply liars. A flood of negative ads on television turned her off along with many others who spoke to reporters.

John Van Weef from Waterloo was visiting his kids in Fort Dodge when he told the Daily Mail that politicians are rigged. He called the economy poor and pointed to a crumbling alleyway behind him as proof of bad infrastructure investment. Van Weef said he would vote for himself rather than pick either party.

Democrats showed up by the hundreds on Wednesday morning, the first day of early voting. Reporters talked to several supporters outside polling stations in Nevada and Fort Dodge. Bill Vogel, 84 years old, told reporters in Nevada that President Trump's corruption was his main reason for backing Democrats. His wife Mary Kate, also 80 years old, said using taxpayer money to build monuments to himself is just one example of that corruption.

Bill and Mary Kate Vogel are both Democrats in their eighties who voted on Wednesday at a Story County location hoping to stand against what they see as corruption from President Donald Trump. Sydney Rose, 19 years old and originally from Marion, Iowa, supports Josh Turek for the US Senate because she likes his stance on sending public money to public schools. She plans to become an educator after graduation.

After that first day of early voting, more than 17,000 people had already cast their votes. Democrats were outpacing both Republicans and those choosing no party. The number is real but not a shock because Republicans do not typically vote early even though the gap should widen before election day if more Democrats show up.

Nationally Democrats look more eager to vote than Republicans, yet the trend flips in Iowa. When pollsters moved from registered voters to likely voters, the Democratic lead shrank in a recent survey by Marist University. CNN's Iowa poll points the same way with 53 percent of likely voters wanting Republicans to control the Senate versus 46 percent for Democrats. CNN noted signs that Iowa offers a better playing field for Republicans than Ohio where Trump has won three times.

Congresswoman Hinson holds a statistical dead heat with Turek despite being a three-term lawmaker. A poll released by Marist University on Wednesday found Turek leading his opponent 48 percent to 45 percent. However, 59 percent of likely statewide voters believed that Hinson would be elected in November.

Turek told his supporters on Thursday in Cedar Falls that young people, union workers, folks in rural communities and farmers would make the difference in his race. Sydney Rose shared she is backing Turek because she appreciates his position on public money going to public schools as an education major who plans to teach in Iowa after graduation. As a younger voter, Rose also said she is trying to be optimistic about the future and believes voting for Turek will stop the United States from becoming a second or third world country.