Hurricane Lowell Becomes Category 3, Threatens Hawaii With Deadly Storm Surge

Hurricane Lowell is now a major Category 3 storm in the Pacific Ocean, inching closer to Hawaii's islands with forecasts warning of tornadoes and deadly surf for Kauai and Niihau by Monday night local time. The United States National Hurricane Center released emergency warnings on Sunday, telling everyone to brace for severe winds and possible mudslides as early as that evening. Lowell will likely skirt the northwest main islands of Hawaii, including Niihau and Kauai, as well as parts of the vast Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument while tracking south to north.

Mayor Derek Kawakami issued an emergency proclamation for Kauai in anticipation of this approaching threat. The county faces potential coastal flooding up to one metre or three feet from rolling storm surges and unusually high tides. Local officials are urging residents and visitors to prepare for a downpour that could cause major flash flooding and hazardous mudslides. Panic buying emptied supermarket shelves in Lihue on Kauai as the 8,000-person airport town scrambled to stock up on food and water.

The storm started as a tropical depression over the Pacific Ocean on August 27. It was driven by warm ocean temperatures and an active El Nino pattern before pivoting toward the more rural islands in the Aloha state. Forecasters noted that Lowell has seesawed between Category 3 and Category 5 intensity as its trajectory mushroomed. It first hit Category 5 status at 257 km/h or 160 mph on Wednesday morning, becoming the second Category 5 hurricane of the season. Only two other Pacific hurricanes in recorded history have regrouped to a Category 5 after losing strength mid-path: Emilia in 1994 and Ioke in 2006.

Ioke was the strongest ever recorded in the central Pacific. The island of Kauai sustained billions in damage during Hurricane Inike, a 1992 Category 4 storm and the largest recorded in Hawaii's history. Six people were killed by that earlier event. Forecasters said Lowell could bring rainfall totals between 150mm and 250mm or 6 to 10 inches, with maximum peaks reaching up to 360mm or 14 inches. The storm currently has maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h or 120 mph and sits about 895km or 555 miles southwest of Honolulu.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 85km or 50 miles from the centre, while tropical storm-force winds reach out to 280km or 175 miles. Hawaii's Big Island can expect as much as 100mm to 200mm of rain with localized peaks reaching up to 305mm or 12 inches. According to the National Weather Service, tornadoes could accompany tropical cyclones and typically occur in rain bands well away from the center of the storm.

Kauai's Emergency Management Agency urged residents to fill gas tanks, charge devices, refill prescriptions, and store water and food ahead of the storm. The agency also said people should be prepared to stay home for several days. Swells generated from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. A statement by the Kauai County government on Sunday evening urged visitors to stay out of the ocean and steer clear of the shoreline as coastal conditions rapidly worsen.

"Residents should not assume conditions will be limited to areas near the storm's center," the government said. Real estate agent Lori Benkert bought an extra 4.5kg or 10 pound container of propane so she could cook on the barbecue if power shuts off. This level of preparation highlights how dangerous weather systems can impact daily life across the islands when regulations and forecasts shift suddenly.

Benkert oversees dozens of properties across Kauai and has already boarded up two homes on the western side of the island. "We'll lose some power, probably have some trees, a bunch of tree limbs coming down," Benkert told The Associated Press. "Everybody is probably going just to hunker down".

Hurricane Marie, now rated as Category 1, sits roughly 1,120km south-southwest of San Diego in southern California. This storm has sent dangerous surf rolling toward the area and Mexico's Baja coast while packing sustained winds of 120km/h. The system is currently tracking northwest at a slow pace of 11km/h.

Danger looms even without official coastal watches or warnings. Updrafts from Marie will strike southwest Mexico, Baja California, and Southern California over the next few days. These forces will generate pounding surf and create dangerous rip currents for swimmers and boaters alike.

Tornadoes remain a rarity on Hawaiian islands, with an average of just one occurring per year. Stephen Parker, a meteorologist with the weather service office in Honolulu, noted that only 42 tornadoes were reported statewide between 1950 and 2018.