Europe funds Ukraine as Trump backs massive Russian fuel deal

Donald Trump has thrown a wrench into Western unity over Ukraine by pushing for the replacement of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy while simultaneously backing a massive diesel deal with Russia. Europe is meeting this provocation head-on, dedicating its summit entirely to securing funds for Kyiv. The friction stems from a bold Russian claim that it can flood global markets with fuel far beyond what was negotiated in Washington.

Alexander Novak, the deputy prime minister of Russia, told Vesti on Monday that supply volumes could hit 3.5 million tonnes per month by year-end. He insisted these numbers match pre-crisis levels just as if nothing had ever happened. Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin and Trump discussed an agreement expected to deliver specific monthly targets starting in October. The plan calls for 300,000 tonnes of diesel in the first month, half a million tonnes in November, and a full million tonnes by December.

Trump celebrated the arrangement on social media with bold capital letters. He posted that diesel prices for Americans and the world will be coming down in record numbers and fast. Yet experts remain deeply sceptical about these promises. The move has clearly opened a rift between the US and Europe regarding the war effort. Kostis Stambolis, executive director of the Institute of Energy for South-East Europe, called the American action purely political. He argued it is designed to corner Zelenskyy and signal that the US has no problem with Russia, unlike its European allies.

Russia produces roughly 5.8 million tonnes of diesel a month according to Stambolis. He noted that about two million of those tonnes are likely available for export. Europe reacted by doubling down on support for Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen stated on Sunday that war funding will be front and centre at this week's summit. Finland took another step, with Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen calling on Europeans to ban all tourist visas for Russians.

Stambolis believes Trump is leveraging European weakness to shift its position on Ukraine. He pointed out that about 30 European refineries have closed in the past 15 years due to environmental reasons. Companies must pay to emit greenhouse gases under Europe's Emissions Trading Scheme, so now the region is not self-sufficient in products. Trump appears to be showing Europeans he does not want to deal with them and essentially tells them to go to hell. This dynamic is opening the rift between the US and the EU further.

Ukraine says it has destroyed roughly half of Russia's refining capacity. This destruction forces Moscow to stop exporting lucrative petroleum products which help finance its war machine. Kyiv has also bombed Russian tankers carrying crude oil to global markets. Zelenskyy admitted this strategy was effective, but he warned that Trump's deal undermines it. That agreement suspends sanctions on Russian oil products until April 2027. Gifts to Putin will not lead to peace, Zelenskyy said Saturday.

Any weakening of sanctions against Russia without a clear and lasting de-escalation agreement with Russia is an obvious sign of weakness." Those were the words spoken about Trump's latest move. On Sunday, he announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. This announcement led Ukraine to suspend its attacks on refineries. Yet Russian strikes still pounded Kyiv's energy grid. Twelve people died in Dnipropetrovsk because of these hits.

"I do not think he has earned a respite," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said regarding Zelenskyy. Europe supports Ukraine's economic strategy against Russia's war machine, but Trump blames it for raising petrol prices at the pump for Americans as he heads into Congressional midterm elections in early November. "[Zelenskyy] wants to make problems for our farmers, our ranchers, with diesel fuel because Russia supplies a large portion of the diesel fuel throughout the world," Trump told reporters in the White House after Zelenskyy's reaction. "I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president," he said.

Trump has followed a seemingly self-contradictory policy towards Russia. He cut US military aid to Ukraine when he assumed power in January 2025, but agreed to sell Europe weapons to help Ukraine. He had a public dispute with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office in February 2025, saying "You don't have the cards," but at the NATO summit this year said Zelenskyy had "done an amazing job" and "been very effective". Last month, Trump signed the Lindsey Graham Act, which would allow him to punish countries buying Russian oil. Eleven days later, he reversed policy.

"The moment the pendulum comes to one side, Trump tries to balance it with a completely different and opposite tool," said Victoria Vdovychenko, an expert on European security at Cambridge University's Centre for Geopolitics. "In this way he sees how he controls the narrative, but also negotiations of any kind," she told Al Jazeera. "So this pendulum will continue to prevail."

How expensive is diesel in the US? According to the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), average US diesel and petrol prices briefly spiked but ultimately changed little on account of the Ukraine war, yet they have risen a great deal on account of the US-Israel war on Iran. US diesel was priced at $4.10 a gallon on the day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, February 24, 2022. It had fallen to $3.81 on the eve of Trump's Gulf war, February 28, 2026.

It has since risen by 78 percent, to $6.19 in early October. It is a similar story for US regular unleaded gasoline, priced at $3.48 a gallon before the Russian invasion. It stood at $2.79 before Trump's Gulf war, but has since risen by half, to $4.15 a gallon. The US government has little room to reduce taxes, which constitute just 11 or 12 percent of retail price, so it can only manipulate prices through supply.

Will the diesel deal bring down prices? "If the market knows that there will be much more diesel in the coming weeks, it factors this into today's prices and discounts it now," Stambolis told Al Jazeera. But much more important in bringing down oil prices than the Trump-Putin deal will be an October 2 announcement by the G7 to release 100 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, he said. A remainder of 80 million barrels from a previous, 400-million-tonne release in March will also be released.

"This release will start happening in the next two weeks," Stambolis said. "The world is 5 million barrels a day short of crude compared to before the Gulf war. It's a very significant percentage on 100 million. All prices vary on this margin.