Economist says Trump's promise of $5,000 checks will likely not happen

President Donald Trump has made another cash promise to the American public that experts say will likely never happen, much like previous ones. Douglas Holz-Eakin, an economist and former budget hawk, told Fox News Digital this latest pledge is improbable. "The president has promised a lot of checks," Holz-Eakin stated. "The most recent being $5,000 to every American if Republicans hold on to the House and Senate." He added simply, "We ever going to see these? Well, I don't think so."

Holz-Eakin brings significant experience to this critique. He previously served as director of the Congressional Budget Office and led domestic and economic policy for Sen. John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. His skepticism covers several specific proposals. "The DOGE checks were never realistic because DOGE was never going to save that much money," he said regarding Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency cuts. He also noted, "And the tariff checks were never that realistic because [Trump] didn't have the authority to issue the checks." This lack of legal power applies to all such promises made by the administration.

Even the plan for $9,000 checks to stay-at-home mothers faces steep odds. Holz-Eakin said getting money for childcare support "is gonna be tough," though a route exists. "We'll see if they actually pull it off," he remarked. "So, I would be skeptical that any of these checks are gonna be in your mailbox very soon."

The economist compared the current fiscal direction to that of former President Joe Biden's Democratic administration. "I think we've seen two successive administrations get themselves in the following position: inflation is too high and wages aren't keeping up with it," he explained. That situation fails at the American dream, according to Holz-Eakin.

Getting inflation under control remains the first step toward restoring order. Holz-Eatin expressed being "utterly supportive" of the Federal Reserve as it works toward that goal. The Fed hiked interest rates Wednesday for the first time in three years and signaled more increases could follow. This move contradicts Trump's push to have the central bank lower rates to ease burdens on home and auto loan seekers. "Inflation remains elevated," the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement. "Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal."

"You need to have, I think, a more vibrant economy, and this economy is doing okay, but it's putting up with a lot of headwinds," Holz-Eatin said. He pointed directly at Trump administration decisions as causes for the lackluster economy that burdens the middle class while grocery prices climb. "The first headwinds were tariffs, second headwinds were the oil prices and fight with Iran," he told Fox News Digital. "We need to get past those battles and let the economy just go." That would create a better environment for families.

Overall fiscal policy worries Holz-Eatin deeply. He fears the nation is heading in the wrong direction economically. "I'm a former director of the Congressional Budget Office. I have to every day get up and look at the books and wonder, 'how's this going to add up?'" he said. "And right now it doesn't add up." The debt stands at $41 trillion. The deficit runs $2 trillion every year and is getting larger. You cannot just keep putting people on government programs without consequence.

It won't add up," a voice declared firmly. The source was clear: current fiscal policies are failing to deliver. A specific remedy was put forward immediately, a return to old school conservative politics. This approach demands a sharp U-turn in strategy. The goal is simple yet stark: get the debt under control, stop spending quite so much money, and pass through this crisis without raising taxes. That sounds like a classic plan, but it is not what people are seeing right now. Trust has eroded when promises do not match reality.

Fox News Digital tried to reach the White House for comment on Trump's economic promises. The response was silence. No reply came at time of publication. That quiet moment speaks volumes about access to information inside these halls. When journalists ask questions, they often get nowhere fast. It feels like a privileged few hold the keys while everyone else waits in the dark. Communities face real risks when leaders ignore the math and push forward with empty pledges. The stakes are too high for half-measures or wishful thinking.