China-U.S. Talks Yield Light Results Despite State Visit Hype

President Xi Jinping holds the title of ruler for life in China, yet he shows no readiness to finalize sweeping agreements with the United States on soybeans, artificial intelligence, or any other major topic. This engagement was styled as a State Visit rather than a true summit, but even by those lower expectations, the resulting deliverables were remarkably light. The state-owned People's Daily newspaper found itself so short of material that its staff published a story headlined "Bonded by Ping-Pong: China-U.S. friendship writes a new chapter."

Do not lose heart entirely though. The Trump Administration has secured some quiet victories and established a much stronger field position for the long haul. U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue noted that the old adage regarding deliverables in our relationship with China really cannot be measured in many ways. It is simply about continuing the conversation.

What matters most to America over the long term is the trade deficit, and there is good news on this front because it is falling. The gap between U.S. exports and imports from China has already dropped from $297 billion in 2024 to $202 billion in 2025. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the deficit is on track to drop to $140 billion for 2026. If this projection comes true, it represents a historic reversal of globalization trends. The gap has not been this low in over twenty years.

Team Trump deserves credit for what they call managed trade involving specific non-sensitive goods like agricultural products and medical devices. All those export controls marked as national security issues have been taken off the table, according to Greer speaking on CNBC. She promised more trade details would follow next week. However, China has bought only half the amount of soybeans agreed upon, so there is still a long way to go on balancing the trade account.

This work lacks glamour. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent held a twelve-hour meeting on Sunday with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. In the end, both sides could only extend the 2025 truce for two more months. Remember what happened last year when China stopped licensing rare earth material exports and Trump slapped on massive tariffs. I do not know whether a bigger deal can be done or if we will just roll with the current arrangement, Bessent said Wednesday.

The Bessent-He meeting was also supposed to set up an agreement on artificial intelligence safety mechanisms for both leaders. Afterwards, Bessent stuck to the optimistic line that China was eager to engage and spoke about setting up at least a hot line to handle incidents across borders. Do not count on much more than this. China does not participate in nuclear arms control. Any AI accord will likely be all talk with no teeth, just like the U.S.-China fentanyl working group.

What is far more important is keeping the United States artificial intelligence technology stack ahead of China. At the White House State Dinner on Thursday night, it was good to see Trump assemble tech titans as he did during his visit to Beijing in May. Leaders from companies like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Dell, and OpenAI possess the cash and the smarts needed to keep America in the lead. SpaceX and Amazon are launching satellites that will maintain U.S. dominance over China in the low earth orbit market sector. Google has Project Suncatcher designed to run its tensor processing units with solar power on orbit. Innovation remains America's edge over China.

Yes, there is a desire to book deals in areas such as chips and financial services, but China has been lagging behind. For example, Nvidia is cleared to sell its H200 chips to China, yet these are not the most advanced products available, and only small batches have been purchased by Tencent and ByteDance. The reality is that China is cutting imports under Xi's policy of semi-conductor self-reliance. That is a clear sign China is girding for long-term conflict.

Fortunately, President Trump has taken many actions to strengthen America's position.

The Greenland deal, pouring money into Venezuelan oil fields, kicking Chinese companies out of the Panama Canal Zone, building a massive defense budget to check Beijing, swelling the Space Force, and keeping the U.S. Navy blocking the Strait of Hormuz: every single move has shielded American interests. Clear borders work best for geopolitics.

China is pushing its reach into space now. America needs to take back control of the heavens.

What did Xi Jinping offer in return? He promised a loan of two giant pandas to the Atlanta Zoo and launched an absurd plan to send 100,000 Americans to study in China over the next five years. This came from a nation ramping up nuclear weapons production, jamming U.S. satellites in orbit, buying Russian oil and defense electronics, and handing Iran what Perdue called "intel and parts."

That proposal was deeply cynical. Xi wants to show off Chinese culture, yet fewer than 2,000 American students study there while 265,919 Chinese students are here in the USA. Last fall, Harvard took in 1,452 students from China, mostly graduate scholars. But if you want a seat, Duke University runs a joint venture in China that received praise and likely coincidental coverage in the state-owned China Daily on Friday.