Brazilian woman skips second round election as protest against candidates

Sao Paulo, Brazil – Larissa Campelo cast her first ballot in 2014 for centre-right Senator Aecio Neves. Four years later she switched sides and backed former Sao Paulo Mayor Fernando Haddad, a centre-left candidate. Now at thirty years old and mother of one, the woman from Araraquara has decided to stop. She plans to stay home on Sunday even though voting remains compulsory for most adults in Brazil.

This choice mirrors her decision during the first round on October 4 when she also did not vote. About 33.4 million Brazilian adults skipped the initial election, pushing abstention to 21 percent. That figure marks the highest turnout gap since 1998. "It's my form of protest," Campelo explained. "I don't want to dirty my hands with these candidates." She added that her silence is not apathy but a belief no candidate deserves her vote.

The final race pits Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in what could be the tightest run-off ever seen in Brazil. Lula seeks an unprecedented fourth, non-consecutive term as incumbent president. His opponent belongs to a far-right political dynasty and aims to follow his father, imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro won 47 percent of votes cast while Lula took 45 percent. Only 2.2 million ballots separated them out of more than 158.7 million registered voters.

New polling from Quaest shows the gap shrinking further ahead of Sunday's vote. The firm reported Bolsonaro at 50.5 percent support versus Lula's 49.5 percent, a difference well within the margin of error. Experts say polarization has created many citizens unwilling to choose either leader. In the same survey 52 percent said they would never vote for Bolsonaro. Forty-seven percent rejected Lula, though pollsters noted his rejection rate dropped six points in one week as a promising sign.

Joao Guilherme Bastos dos Santos of the Democracy in Check Institute described how polarization drives public disengagement. He argued that fear often motivates voters to oppose rather than support any candidate. That dynamic creates profound exhaustion because the fighting seems to go nowhere. Campelo shared that feeling after her husband's family broke into an argument over Lula on their WhatsApp group. She said politics now feels like supporting a football team where people defend politicians who do wrong and make no sense at all.

Abstaining voters form a diverse group, according to experts. They include citizens like Campelo who feel alienated by the current political culture. Their numbers matter because appealing to them could prove a path to victory for either side in Sunday's decisive run-off. The atmosphere remains tense with millions waiting to see how these choices play out across the nation.

The reasons why people skip the ballot box vary wildly from person to person. Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, notes that those who actively reject Lula and Bolsonaro likely represent just a minority among Brazil's abstainers. Many others are simply uninterested in politics. "Life is difficult enough that they don't have the headspace, time or resources to devote to politics," she explained.

Luciana Veiga, a political science professor at the Federal University of the State of Rio de Janeiro, adds that these abstainers are not just a bloc of disillusioned voters waiting to be won over. They often face practical hurdles preventing them from casting a ballot. "We cannot say that abstention is simply a political 'no' to voting," Veiga said. Abstention frequently happens among people who move cities without transferring their voter registration, as well as those burdened with work or family care duties on election day. There are also voters in isolated areas who struggle to reach distant polling stations.

Voting remains optional for 16- and 17-year-olds, people aged 70 or older, and those who cannot read or write. "Of Brazil's electorate of [158.7] million people, around 21 million are not legally required to vote," Veiga explained. The penalty for failing to vote is often minor. Without justification for their absence, voters face a fine of up to 3.51 Brazilian reals, less than a dollar, and can have their registrations cancelled after three missed elections in a row. Until these fines are paid, citizens are unable to obtain or renew passports and other ID documents, nor can they take part in the selection process for civil service jobs.

With such a slim margin between the candidates, both campaigns are hoping to court the first-round abstainers ahead of Sunday's showdown. In the weeks since the first vote, Bolsonaro has promised new tax breaks to help boost the economy. A central part of his platform is a pledge to address his father's legal predicament: Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence following his conviction over a coup plot. Lula, meanwhile, has made reducing abstention a central part of his second-round push. After round one, his campaign highlighted Lula's work to end Brazil's six-day workweek and unveiled proposals for free public transport on weekends and debt relief for small-scale entrepreneurs.

Goulart said that these measures "have much more of an effect on those who are uninterested in politics than on those who reject the candidates". The first round, however, seemed to hand Bolsonaro an advantage. Not only did he secure the largest number of votes, but many of the candidates who were eliminated were his right-wing competitors. Some experts predict that the nearly 8 percent who voted for those candidates will migrate to Bolsonaro's camp in the final round.

Bolsonaro also has historical precedent on his side. Brazil began holding direct elections for president in 1989, after its return to democracy. Since that time, no candidate who trailed in the first round of voting has ever won in the second round. But Goulart warns against treating precedent as destiny. "A historical observation is not a causal relationship," she said. She also pointed out that voters may act in unpredictable ways.

New polling data from Quaest released Wednesday shows voters who backed eliminated candidates have not all rushed to support Bolsonaro. The senator managed to win over 43 percent of that specific group, but 37 percent were leaning toward Lula instead. This split represents a more even redistribution than analysts originally predicted. Results also point to an advantage for Lula among those who skipped the first round or left their ballots blank entirely. In this segment, 40 percent told pollsters they prefer Lula, while only 36 percent chose Bolsonaro. Experts warn that poll numbers never guarantee outcomes, yet even tiny shifts in participation could decide such a tight race. Professor Veiga argues that turnout rates matter most in regions where each candidate has deep roots. He notes Lula holds the left-wing northeast as a stronghold, whereas Bolsonaro draws his power from the south and southeast. Look at whether voter numbers drop in either of those bases, he suggested. Any small movement there changes everything.