Arab Parties Hold Keys to Israel's Election Balance

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is going all out to attack his rivals as Israel approaches its high-stakes election on October 27. Yet one group remains just outside the fray while holding the keys to the kingdom: Ra'am and the Joint List. These parties represent Palestinian citizens of Israel, a demographic comprising about 20 percent of the population. Current projections show them winning 13 seats. If those numbers hold up come polling day, these Arab-led lists could tip the balance of power in any post-election coalition, regardless of its political stripe.

They have been here before. Back in 2021, Ra'am made history by becoming the first Arab party to enter an Israeli government after joining a broad coalition that briefly removed Netanyahu from office. At that time, Netanyahu showed himself ready to negotiate terms with Mansour Abbas, leader of Ra'am, or the United Arab List. Instead, Abbas joined forces with the coalition of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid to push through measures he had campaigned for.

Now both camps have drawn a line in the sand. The Netanyahu camp and most leaders of the self-styled Zionist opposition bloc have ruled out forming a government with parties representing Palestinian citizens. Still, the rhetoric is fierce. Netanyahu and his allies paint their political opponents as beholden to Arab-led lists, while the opposition attacks them for relying on minority ultra-Orthodox parties to maintain their own power base.

Opinion polls consistently indicate that Netanyahu's Likud party and the far-right coalition it leads are running neck-and-neck with the Zionist opposition bloc. Neither side looks set to win an outright majority in the 120-strong Knesset. Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House, put it bluntly: "Netanyahu would work with Ra'am in a heartbeat, if it meant staying in power." He added that the opposition doesn't seem to understand the consequences of their actions either.

"If it came down to it," said Mekelberg, "of course they'd accept the support of the party they'd previously vilified without thinking of how that will undermine their government, and undermine the votes of the large numbers of Arab Israelis who support them."

The lead-up to the polls has seen Likud run hard-hitting attack adverts. They warn that if Netanyahu is voted out, it will be the Arab parties that emerge as kingmakers in a new government potentially led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party. A campaign slogan put it clearly: "There is no Gadi without [Ahmad] Tibi," referring to the leader of Ta'al, one of three parties comprising the Joint List.

The alliance also includes Hadash and Balad factions. They say they could provide a so-called safety net to the anti-Netanyahu coalition by agreeing not to stand against it in a confidence vote, even if the alliance does not join the government. This dynamic creates a fragile situation where limited access to information shapes every move. The clock is ticking on October 27, and the stakes have never been higher.

Ra'am has set specific demands for re-entry into the political mainstream, insisting on a clear path to Palestinian statehood and a firm commitment to fighting organized crime. The party is also focusing all its energy on stopping the violent crime engulfing Palestinian communities and tackling discriminatory government policies that unfairly restrict housing rights. Since establishing itself in 1996, Ra'am has already moved far away from its original religiously conservative roots. By December 2025, Mansour Abbas announced that the party's decision-making body would separate from its religious council entirely. Eight months later, they selected their electoral list on their own for the first time. They even placed Yoav Segalovitz second on their slate. He is a Jewish Zionist former senior police commander who served as deputy public security minister in the Bennett-Lapid government.

Mekelberg described Ra'am as one of the most interesting parties this year, noting that through Mansour Abbas they are continually reinventing themselves without appearing opportunistic. The upcoming election marks the first vote since the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel in October 2023, which killed an estimated 1,200 people and triggered a brutal war on Gaza. That conflict has accelerated a political shift to the right, with Arab-led parties increasingly targeted by right-wing figures seeking to cast them as complicit in the October 7 assault. In May, Bennett apologized for joining a government with Ra'am, while in September Netanyahu's Likud and the Otzma Yehudi party petitioned to bar both Ra'am and the Joint List from running.

On September 23, the Central Elections Committee voted to disqualify those lists along with two individual candidates. Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh faced a ban over an article he wrote describing the Hamas-led attack as an important historic event. Ofer Cassif, a Jewish politician with Hadash, was targeted in a petition citing legal prohibitions against supporting armed struggle by enemy states. On October 2, the Supreme Court unanimously overturned these disqualifications by a seven-to-two majority. Abu Shehadeh had withdrawn his candidacy a day earlier after it became clear the court would uphold his ban. Cassif later told Al Jazeera that this was a political decision driven by fear that they needed them.

Orly Noy, a Balad candidate and the first Jewish politician voted onto the party list's top five, said it is safe to say the alliance will not join the next ruling coalition. She noted that their inclusion depends on whether other parties prioritize voter wishes or their own racism. Even if excluded, she added they can still gain concessions from any coalition in return for support. That might not mean ending the occupation, which of course would be ideal, but there is a lot they can do to make people's lives better. The fallout from October 7 has extended beyond Arab parties unconnected to those events and now touches ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties as well. As routine partners in Likud's governing coalitions, they have faced accusations of draft-dodging while drawing heavily on what many regard as a generous state welfare package. Israel's ultra-Orthodox community is largely represented by two parties: Shas, which draws on Jews of Spanish, North African and Middle Eastern descent, and United Torah Judaism, comprising Jews of central and eastern European descent.

Each party is currently polling for roughly seven or eight seats in parliament. They have largely turned away from debates on foreign policy or tax reform. Instead, their central goals focus on shielding ultra-Orthodox students from military service and securing welfare support for the large families common in this community, where many men study rather than work. They are also fighting to protect state funding for their schools and institutions.

Long viewed as Netanyahu's most dependable allies, these groups fractured with Likud last year after it failed to legislate an exemption to the draft. The United Torah Judaism bloc left the coalition entirely. Shas quit the government but kept its 11 politicians within the parliamentary coalition for a time. That party later surrendered its coalition committee roles. Both parties then boycotted coalition bills, effectively paralyzing legislative progress on key measures.

Yet this support from the ultra-Orthodox has exacted a heavy political price. In January, opposition leader Yair Lapid accused the government of sending billions directly to what he called corrupt figures and draft dodgers. Another possible contender for the premiership, right-wing Avigdor Lieberman who heads the Yisrael Beytenu list, went further. He likened Shas and UTJ to the Taliban over their complete lack of female representation. The insults cut deep as political alliances crumble under pressure.