Arab American Activist Sees Michigan Senate Race as Existential Vote Against Trump

In Dearborn, Michigan, Chadi Abdulrazek, a small business owner and Arab American activist, has been fielding calls from journalists across Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, France, and the United Kingdom. The volume of international interest in the upcoming Senate showdown between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers signals that this contest carries weight far beyond a single congressional seat. It is a high-stakes referendum on political direction for both the state and the nation.

Abdulrazek views the election as a necessary check on Donald Trump. He argues that voters must hold the former president accountable for failing to keep his promises of global peace and domestic focus. For Arab and Muslim communities currently facing Islamophobic harassment tied to the campaign, the vote is existential. “What’s on the line is they have to stand up for themselves and say, ‘We are part of this country, and we’re going to be voting, and we will actually make a change’,” Abdulrazek stated.

The candidate profiles offer a stark contrast. Abdul El-Sayed, 42, is a public health advocate of Egyptian descent who previously headed the health departments in Detroit and Wayne County. A win would make him the first Muslim US senator. He lost the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary to Gretchen Whitmer but remains a force in progressive politics, championing Medicare for All. His opponent, Mike Rogers, is a 63-year-old former congressman and state legislator. Rogers narrowly lost the 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin. While he is a close Trump ally, Rogers has tried to distance himself from the unpopular former president. He supports tax cuts, deregulation, and increased domestic energy production. Notably, Rogers backed Trump’s decision to join Israel in the war against Iran, even as he called for an end to that conflict.

The stakes are high for Senate control. Retiring Democrat Gary Peters currently holds the seat. If Republicans take it, they secure a swing-state majority for at least six years. Democrats face a difficult path to reclaiming the chamber if they drop Michigan. But this is more than simple partisan arithmetic. It tests whether progressive ideas, particularly sharp criticism of Israel, can win in a competitive state. Most current progressive senators come from coastal blue states. An El-Sayed victory would prove his coalition can win in the Midwest, potentially reshaping Democratic strategy for the 2028 presidential cycle.

Religion has become a central fault line. Trump and Rogers have launched near-daily attacks on El-Sayed’s Muslim faith. This raises a blunt question: Is the US ready for a Muslim senator? The race has turned into a referendum on religious identity in American politics.

Israel is another flashpoint. El-Sayed has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, echoing findings from major human rights groups and United Nations investigators. He links foreign wars, including the conflict in Iran and US aid to Israel, directly to domestic policy failures. This positions the race not just as a local contest, but as a national debate on foreign policy and social values.

US taxpayers would likely prefer their money fix crumbling infrastructure or shore up healthcare systems instead of funding foreign conflicts. That sentiment sits at the heart of a fierce Michigan Senate battle. Pro-Israel lobbying groups, specifically the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), have poured tens of millions of dollars into this race to block El-Sayed. They previously backed his primary opponent, Haley Stevens, with over $30m. Israel policy has become the defining flashpoint in the contest.

El-Sayed survived that financial blitz in the primaries. Now, Republican challenger Rogers is leveraging criticism from pro-Israel advocates, including some Democrats, to attack him. Rogers has pledged unconditional support for Israel and accused El-Sayed of prioritizing Palestine over Michigan. After a brief pause, AIPAC has re-entered the fray to back Rogers. Their election arm, United Democracy Project, has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on mailers attacking El-Sayed. The New York Times reports the group funneled $9m to a Republican organization supporting Rogers.

Why is former candidate Haley Stevens making headlines again? It is rare for a primary loser to dominate the general election narrative. Yet here she is, days before the vote. Her fiance recently endorsed Rogers, citing El-Sayed’s criticism of Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza. Stevens, a sitting Democratic congresswoman, has also blasted El-Sayed’s stance on Israel. She claims she will still vote for the Democratic candidate, but her repeated media appearances attacking El-Sayed have drawn scorn from fellow Democrats.

On Friday, El-Sayed and various Democratic-aligned groups pushed back against Stevens. They argued the party must focus on winning the Senate seat. El-Sayed stated that while defeating Trump’s hand-picked candidate should be the priority, Stevens seems intent on relitigating a primary that ended three months ago.

Voters on both sides feel the stakes are existential. Al Jazeera interviewed supporters for both candidates, and the urgency was palpable. Former Democratic state legislator Cynthia Johnson said negative campaigning around El-Sayed’s religion and ethnicity makes this election critical. “What’s really at stake is life or death,” Johnson told Al Jazeera. “Our children are being exposed to some very negative, nasty things.” She added that citizens must vote as if their lives depended on it, especially with a maniac in the White House. They need people like Abdul to speak up.

Rob Cortis, a Rogers supporter standing outside a Trump rally on Sunday, expressed similar anxiety. “This election is so important,” Cortis told Al Jazeera. “Our country is at stake. Our border is at stake. The future of our children in America is at stake.” He warned against a shift toward communism, socialism, or Muslim rule, claiming America was never intended for that.

America is intended to be a nation of Christians, showing the goodness of God." That sentiment hangs heavy over a contest that is rapidly spiraling into one of the most expensive political battles in modern history. The stakes are high, the money is flooding in, and the margin of victory could be thinner than a whisper.

Current polling paints a picture of extreme tightness. El-Sayed holds a narrow lead over Rogers, typically ranging from four to seven percentage points. But trust those numbers at your own risk. Michigan, a diverse state with more than 10 million residents, has a checkered history with pollsters. Decades of data suggest these estimates are often unreliable, frequently missing the mark by several points. The Cook Political Report has labeled the race a toss-up, and both campaigns are urging their bases to stay vigilant. They warn that the final outcome may hinge on just a few thousand votes.

The financial warfare is staggering. With nearly $300 million already spent, this Senate race is becoming a money pit. Political action committees (PACs) from both major parties are pouring cash into ad buys, hoping to sway the undecided. On the Republican side, Senate Leadership Fund stands out as a massive spender. Its largest donors include pro-Israel billionaire Miriam Adelson. Joining the fray are MAGA Inc and its subsidiary No Going Back, a pro-Trump group funded by allies of the US president, including Adelson and Elon Musk. Millions of dollars have gone into this effort. Great Lakes Conservatives Fund (GLCF), a Michigan Republican PAC backed by AIPAC in general elections, is also reported to be a significant contributor.

The Democratic side isn't shrinking from the spend. The Senate Majority PAC (SMP) and its affiliated group, WINSENATE, are the largest outlays on that flank. Businessmen Eychaner Fred and Amos Hostetter Jr. are among SMP’s top funders. Every dollar counts in a state where the margin of error is razor-thin.

Voters have already started to act. Early voting is underway across Michigan, with hundreds of thousands of ballots already cast. The final deadline is Tuesday, November 3. Polls close at 8pm local time, which translates to 01:00 GMT on Wednesday.

So, when will anyone know who won? It depends entirely on how close the race gets. If it’s a tight contest, expect a long wait. Michigan likely will not declare a winner until Wednesday. Look at the August primaries for a precedent. When El-Sayed narrowly defeated Stevens, the Associated Press didn't call the race until about 10am (15GMT) on the Wednesday after election day. Similarly, in 2024, the state was called for Trump around 1pm (18:00 GMT) on the day after the election.

However, there is a wildcard. If one candidate secures a commanding lead across the state, the projection could come hours after polls close. But given the current climate? A slow count is the more likely scenario.